據說上週的睇樓量比前週略為回升，而賣得最多單位的樓盤，居然是新盤奧運站的瓏璽，有數十個之多。而二手市場一般的成交價，要用股市爛gag來說明──以市場下限成交。正如筆者前篇所講，兩班人做緊不同買賣，而呈現兩極化的假像。
政界自替補機制之後，復建居屋的聲音已大為減少，並不是被壓下來，而是注意力已轉到另一面，再加上樓市一片唱淡之風，恨上車恨到發燒的人減少了，畢竟他們都會發覺，樓市可旺可淡，樓價只升不跌只不過是一種幻想。有報章以恨「上樓」恨到入精神病院為頭版，擺到明是一種尋租行為：新移民明明未符合入住公屋資格，不擇手段到如斯程度，正如早前有人在街頭做大戲要政府對樓市「做嘢」，現在「初見成效」，滿意未？
筆者並不認為樓市淡靜是由於復建居屋的傳聞，政府由始至終都沒有說過一定復建居屋，特首亦明言十月施政報告再作交待，還有三個月時間，市場繼續轉淡的話，將復建居屋改為擴大置安心，可能更合其心意。有擺明車馬候選人說，如果政府早在兩三年前復建居屋，樓市就不會搞到今時今日。兩年前是2009年，三年前是2008年，剛好是金融海嘯及之後的樓市谷底，當時由涼國公主政的話，可能不只復建居屋，淡市重推八萬五都有可能，其人一係睇到細菌，一係睇到星星，就是看不到眼前。
SSD推出後，二手市場大量樓盤將會綁死兩年，結果供應減少令到樓價上升。所謂供求定律，除了要看供還要看求，供應收縮而樓價不前，可推論的原因就是需求同時減少。坊間一般分析以人口增長、結婚人數、出生率之類來計算樓宇需求，其實這些人口學因素(Demographic Factor)變動得很慢，亦很難改變，何以物業需求大上大落呢？
筆者不禁要指出，樓宇的需求是由「錢」帶動的，人多又如何，借錢難的話又怎樣買樓？當前需求收縮的主要原因是金管局收緊按揭成數，例如非自住物業只可以按五成，國內收入人士（即使拿了香港身份證）減一成按揭，均大大增高了買樓的門檻。舉個例子，買300萬物業，以前做九五成按只需15萬首期，現時自住最多只可以做九成要30萬，標準七成按揭要90萬；如果是非自住物業，首期更要150萬，再因收入來自國內而要減一成，首期更要180萬！住宅交投不收縮就奇了。
上面所講的是短期內不能改變的，不過人們對供樓利息的觀感是會改變的。以前P按為主流時，P-2.5%已經覺得很低息；後來H按流行，以H+0.7%計，利率往往低至一厘。最近銀行集體加按息，部份P按及H按息率已幾乎平頭甚至過頭，無形中按息已靜悄悄地變相加了一息多，人們當然提不起勁借錢買樓。
不過從絕對值看，通脹是4-5%，按息是2-3%，也是負利率，只是人們習慣之前的超低息，而不覺得用負利率買樓遠比租樓化算。筆者相信幾個月內，當人們適應了「相對高的負利率」這個市場形勢後，樓市交投才會顯著回升，然後樓價才有機會跟升。「量跌價軟，量升價硬」，似乎可以概括了下半年的樓市。
睇來量升好似難一D喎.而家D業主有好多都唔急賣.而且盤少既情況應該都會因為特別tax而進一步-少. 不過應該與見頂不遠了.呢個價已經遠超中產既負擔.市區都要成4百萬先有6-7百呎.月供都唔低嫁.而且仲+緊息,未來既供款會上升1-2成.我認為都應該冇咩支持喇.
[版主回覆07/23/2011 22:28:00]從回報率衡量，現時的樓價水平已經超越九七 租金繼續升，樓價不前的話回報率才升回較高水平
等到差唔多適應個利率，銀行又加按息，週而復始… 現價買入，值博率不高。
[版主回覆07/23/2011 22:26:00]銀行唔放水，都唔駛諗
財來自高鐵 新华网温州７月２３日电（记者张和平）记者从温州消防部门获悉，２３日２０时３４分，Ｄ３１１５次动车在行驶至温州方向双屿路段下岙路时，发生两节车厢脱轨坠落桥下事故，目前死伤情况不明，有关政府部门正在赶往施救。 Ｄ３１１５次动车为杭州发往福州，杭州发车时间为１６时３６分，全程约为７４０公里。每节车厢定员约百人。
依家利率咁低，業主其實有持貨能力，唔洗賤賣套現，樓價跌唔到太多
我認為等銀行利率進入加息週後，如果租金唔見得升時，真正實力唔夠既人會賣樓套現，樓價先會有明顯跌幅。老美預計明年中開始加息，想買樓既到時伺機入市，脫兄點睇呢?
[版主回覆07/24/2011 16:02:00]筆者都估明年下半年
Hi
I m seriously considering to buy a house for long term investment purpose, with the hope of price appreciation and earning rental income.
The house is a 2 bedrooms apartment in Western Kln area, and is currently sold at a 10% discount (taking reference to the transactions for the recent 1-2 months for apartments with simliar view / level etc..)
The expected return on rental income is around 4.5% (which I consider quite good based on current market condition).
4 questions for you..
a) What's your opinion on the rental income trend in HK for the next 1-2 years? I tend to believe the rent will increase during this timespan……but your thought ?
b) Do you think government will intervene (e.g, implement some restrictions) on current rental market, like the rental regulation before 2004?
c) I understand from your other articles that this is probably not a good timing to buy apartments…however, based on the price discount, the expected rental income return…do you think the "safety margin" is enough?
d) I m planning to apply for 70% mortgage. This apartment is not sold with a tenant agreement so 70% is still ok. However, as I plan to rent it out, do you think there is high chance that the bank will check whether the house is really for "self-use" purpose? The official message is that any changes to the purpose of the property have to be communicated to the bank; however, as far as I understand, the vast majority of house owners won't do that…and the bank seldom (if not never) checks it. Is my understanding correct?
Many thanks for your opinion. My apology for not using Chinese because my company PCdoes not have Chinese input method installed.
Gary
[版主回覆07/27/2011 21:53:00]如果你買入單位僅僅是用來收租，數係可以咁計，只要唔好對於樓價大起大落太在意就得了！租金將會繼續升，但政府將會做乜野，相信事前連政府都唔知。銀行會唔會查，亦係無人知的，請記住真係查到的話，你夠錢比多兩成首期，以及新加利息計掂數就可以了。 如果考慮晒以上的野，出左事又夠錢補首期差價，咁就可以去馬，否則政策一變，或者銀行要加息call margin，就係考驗safety margin的時刻。
Hello morning,
I have questions for you
1) What's your opinion on the long term price upside potential of the following 3 villas: 樂悠居+ 立坊 and 爵悅庭? Do you think in the long run (say 5 years) their prices will approach those of 萬景峰or even 御凱 ? It seems like there will be bridges linking these villas together with Tsuen Wan + TSuen Wan West MTR stations.
2) Do you know if the factory buildings around these 3 villas owned by SHK will be rebuilt soon?
3) Of the 3 villas, I understand probably 爵悅庭 has the best quality. Does that mean it has the highest upside potential of the 3? 爵悅庭 is a bit more expensive, do you think the other 2 will be a comparable replacement ? I want to buy 2 rooms apartment for rental income purpose.
4) As comparing with 港灣豪庭 in Tai Kok Tsui, do you think these 3 Tsuen wan villas has higher or lower price upside potential in the long run?
Thanks for your advise !
[版主回覆08/01/2011 18:17:00]爵悅庭點升都唔會貴過萬景峰，正如康怡永遠都唔會貴過太古城。同樣道理，立坊樂悠居永遠都唔會貴過爵悅庭，理由係俄羅斯公仔結構。 楊屋道以北的綜合發展區，新地正申請將自己擁有的工廈獨立分析出來，自行發展。 港灣豪庭有機會搬九殯，所以潛力比三寶大。
謝謝你的回應
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20110801&sec_id=15307&subsec_id=15326&art_id=15481637&cat_id=5886784&coln_id=6794994
本地樓市見頂的迹象已越來越明顯，筆者早前看淡的理據，現正逐步浮現，包括加息及大陸資金緊絀。銀行按息已加，相信情況只會越來越嚴重，下一步會是 HIBOR及最優惠利率都有上調壓力，只待今期本地銀行股公佈完業績後，便更明確。
內地客割價沽豪宅
至於內地資金方面，豪宅盤的內地投資者開始要大幅減價求售，但卻缺乏承接力，時間一拖，只有不斷再減。不要相信樓市下調 10%至 15%後便會跌停，今次樓市的爆煲，將會是每 15%每 15%逐步下跌，到最後才急跌
脫兄, 你對以上言論有何睇法?我傾向覺得D財演在嘩眾取寵; 它日說錯了,無人會記得; 說對了, 就會話自己睇得0岩; 跟本就係一大堆謬論
[版主回覆08/01/2011 23:14:00]今日王文彥先生在信報發表樓市見頂言論 停了的鐘，每天都有兩個時間準確，睇黎做乜？
Hello
A follow up question about 爵悅庭 :
While it may be in different class with 萬景峰, do you agree that it's significantly undervalued? Currently,爵悅庭 is only trading at around 6K per sq foot while 萬景峰 is 8K – that represents a 33% price differential. Given that they are only less than 5 mins walk away, the tenants of 爵悅庭 can share the shopping malls of 萬景峰 pretty easily, the ages of the apartments are not very different (3 vs 5 years), do you think this 33% gap can be reduced (if not completely disappear) in the future, especially when the bridge linking with MTR station and 爵悅庭 completed next year ?
[版主回覆08/02/2011 19:21:00]差價會降低，但降極都過唔到頭，何況萬景峰細爵悅庭兩年
Thanks.
I visited 立坊 and 樂悠居 yesterday evening after work. As mentioned previously I targeted at 2 bedrooms apartments. The prices were still not cheap, on average 3.2-3.4M for around 600 sq feet at middle floor with factory view. Agree with you that 港灣豪庭 is more worth the money !
By the way, it seems like the global economic environment is not that optimistic…although the US congress has agreed with the new debt limit Dow still goes down quite significantly.
If Fitch decides to downgrade US debt rating, do you agree that another crisis may be coming ? If that's the case, as for HK…. HIBOR rates may go up significantly, bank may further tighen lending (just like what they did during the 08 financial crisis), then the property price may go down….how likely do you think it will happen for the 2nd half of 2011 ?