{"id":5322,"date":"2018-01-04T19:13:10","date_gmt":"2018-01-04T11:13:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=5322"},"modified":"2018-02-09T22:48:16","modified_gmt":"2018-02-09T14:48:16","slug":"5322","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=5322","title":{"rendered":"\u6a13\u5e02\u89e3\u8b80(18)\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u73a9\u5f04\u6a13\u5e02\u6578\u64da2\u2502\u812b\u82e6\u6d77"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"v2-fffa5531ab914b7b75326119b588bd63_r\"<\/p>\n

\u6253\u5f9e2008\u5e743\u6708\u4e2d\u539f\u57ce\u5e02\u9818\u5148\u6307\u657873.98\uff0c\u6a13\u5e02\u7d93\u6b77\u4e00\u6bb5\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u523012\u670856.71\u7684\u5168\u5e74\u6700\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u624d\u7565\u70ba\u56de\u5347\u4e0d\u8db32%\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u80fd\u5728\u50b3\u5a92\u4e0a\u770b\u5230\u300c\u50f9\u91cf\u9f4a\u5347\u300d\u3001 \u300c\u4f4e\u4f4d\u53cd\u5f48\u300d\u4e4b\u985e\u7684\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u6307\u6578\u986f\u793a\u7684\u8207\u500b\u5225\u60c5\u6cc1\u6709\u5225\uff0c\u9084\u53ea\u662f\u6709\u5fc3\u4eba\u65b7\u7ae0\u53d6\u7fa9\u9020\u52e2\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\u5f9e\u4f86\u90fd\u662f\u96e3\u4ee5\u638c\u63e1\u800c\u5bb9\u6613\u73a9\u5f04\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u6fb3\u6d32\u7db2\u4e0a\u7206\u767c\u4e00\u8d77\u73a9\u5f04\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\u7684\u722d\u8ad6\uff0c\u4ea6\u5c0d\u65bc\u5206\u6790\u6a13\u5e02\u6709\u6240\u555f\u793a\u30021\u670814\u65e5\u6fb3\u6d32\u7db2\u4e0a\u65b0\u805e\u7db2\u7ad9\u300aThe Australian\u300b\u4e00\u7bc7\u7f72\u540dJon
\nJenkins\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u61c9\u7528\u75311978\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7684\u74b0\u7403\u6eab\u5ea6\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u8072\u7a31\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u5df2\u8f49\u52e2\uff0c\u4e26\u5927\u8086\u6279\u8a55\u6696\u5316\u8ad6\u8005\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u5f15\u8d77\u7db2\u4e0a\u591a\u540d\u6fb3\u6d32\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u570d\u653b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ee5War on Science\u800c\u540d\u4e4b\u3002<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.\u00a0theaustralian.news.com.au\u00a0\/story\/0,25197,24876451-7583,00.html<\/a><\/p>\n

\"v2-a8a964a6bdae5716b62a5626cc14373b_hd\"<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u722d\u8ad6\u9ede\u662f\u7d71\u8a08\u8da8\u52e2\u7dda\u7684\u61c9\u7528\uff0cJon Jenkins\u4f7f\u7528\u300c\u591a\u9805\u56de\u6b78\u5206\u6790\u300d(Polynomial
\nRegression)\uff0c\u4e26\u4f7f\u7528\u51aa\u6b216(Order 6)\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u689d\u8d77\u8d77\u4f0f\u4f0f\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u7dda\u3002\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u540d\u535a\u5ba2Tim
\nLambert\u4f7f\u7528\u300c\u7dda\u6027\u56de\u6b78\u5206\u6790\u300d(Linear Regression)\u4f5c\u51fa\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u4e0a\u5347\u8da8\u52e2\u4e26\u4e0d\u56e0\u8fd1\u5e74\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u6578\u64da\u8f49\u800c\u5411\u4e0bhttp:\/\/\u00a0<\/span>scienceblogs.com\/deltoi\u00a0<\/span>d\/2009\/01\/ the_australians_war_on_science_32.php<\/span><\/a>\u3002\u4e26\u9032\u800c\u6279\u8a55\u4f7f\u7528\u51aa\u6b216\u591a\u9805\u56de\u6b78\u5206\u6790(Sixth-degree Polynomial)\u4e26\u4e0d\u69cb\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\u8da8\u52e2(does not produce a meaningful trend line in any way shape or form)\u3002<\/p>\n

\"v2-dc97ec9d7f8911556ab00c468460d9b2_hd\"<\/figure>\n

\u5c31\u5728\u773e\u4eba\u722d\u8ad6\u61c9\u8a72\u4f7f\u7528\u90a3\u7a2e\u8da8\u52e2\u7dda\u6642\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u540d\u97ff\u61c9\u8005Alan D. McIntire\u66f4\u80fd\u76f4\u6307\u554f\u984c\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u4e0d\u53ad\u5176\u7169\u539f\u6587\u7bc0\u9304\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n

http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/deltoid\/2009\/01\/sixth-degree_polynomial_fits_j.php#comment-1328214<\/a><\/p>\n

There’s a confusion in the debate here between MODELING data versus predictive formulas. The higher the degree of the polynomial, the more closely it will match the data for the closed period you already have data for. As for the future, the only way to tell which is better, a given linear model or a given higher polynomial, is to compare the predictions of each model with future data points.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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\"v2-d63dd588ab7b87e12a3390ec021fc7eb_hd\"\"v2-506f5be65976f63a3606856ad9e88e30_hd\"\"v2-2aa50f7e215c6e37de2a9e3bffe8816d_hd\"<\/p>\n

\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u7559\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u6700\u63a5\u8fd1\u8abf\u6574\u544e\u50f9\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u662f\u9ed1\u7dda\uff0c\u9ec3\u8272\u7dda\u986f\u793a\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0a\u6a13\u50f9\u7531$2,100\u7de9\u7de9\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5230\u7d04$1,850\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u5f9e\u6210\u4ea4\u5206\u4f48\u770b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e00\u7a2e\u8aaa\u6cd5\u66f4\u300c\u8fd1\u78c5\u300d\u5462\uff1f\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u770b\u5716\u8005\u5e0c\u671b\u8868\u9054\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u8da8\u5411\uff0c\u7406\u61c9\u662f\u6709\u8d77\u6709\u4f0f\u7684\uff0c\u4e00\u689d\u76f4\u7dda\u770b\u4f3c\u80fd\u8868\u9054\u5927\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u53ea\u9700\u628a\u6642\u5ef6\u9577\u5230\u6bd4\u59822005\u5e74\u62162003\u5e74\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u6709\u4e00\u689d\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u7dda\u8868\u73fe\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u9019\u53c8\u4f55\u88dc\u65bc\u4e8b\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u56de\u5230\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\uff0c\u82e5\u53ea\u770b\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u6216\u767e\u591a\u4e8c\u767e\u5e74\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u6703\u5f97\u51fa\u6eab\u5ea6\u5411\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u83ab\u8b1b\u5230\u6bd4\u5982\u5730\u8cea\u5e74\u671f\u6bd4\u5982\u4f8f\u7f85\u7d00\u6050\u9f8d\u6642\u4ee3\u4fbf\u9060\u6bd4\u73fe\u5728\u708e\u71b1\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u570b\u6625\u79cb\u6230\u570b\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u6c23\u8c61\u5b78\u5bb6\u7afa\u53ef\u798e\u7b49\u5f9e\u5927\u8c61\u53ca\u7af9\u7684\u5206\u4f48\u4ea6\u63a8\u65b7\u51fa\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6c23\u6eab\u4ea6\u6bd4\u73fe\u5728\u6f6e\u6fd5\u6eab\u6696\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n

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