{"id":4212,"date":"2017-11-13T19:52:14","date_gmt":"2017-11-13T11:52:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=4212"},"modified":"2018-03-22T06:50:10","modified_gmt":"2018-03-21T22:50:10","slug":"4212","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=4212","title":{"rendered":"\u80a1\u7968\u5165\u9580(9)\uff1a\u8cb7\u8ce3\u80a1\u7968\u505a\u751f\u610f\u2502\u812b\u82e6\u6d77"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"8226\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?attachment_id=8226\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-1c12fa73907f2b69dd5b437e0bd3c5c7_r.jpg?fit=1000%2C750&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,750\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" 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srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-1c12fa73907f2b69dd5b437e0bd3c5c7_r.jpg?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-1c12fa73907f2b69dd5b437e0bd3c5c7_r.jpg?resize=320%2C240&amp;ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-1c12fa73907f2b69dd5b437e0bd3c5c7_r.jpg?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<figure><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"origin_image zh-lightbox-thumb lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/pic4.zhimg.com\/50\/v2-d3153df908778b0aba0ed82c72dc587a_hd.jpg?w=510&#038;ssl=1\"  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model)\u662f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u67d0\u4e9b\u5275\u696d\u7248\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u7121\u5f9e\u89e3\u91cb\u516c\u53f8\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u7372\u5f97\u5229\u6f64\u7684\uff0c\u5c45\u7136\u6dea\u843d\u5230\u7528\u773c\u7403\uff08\u700f\u89bd\u7387\uff09\u6216\u71d2\u9322\u7387\u4f86\u4f30\u503c\u3002\u53e6\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u570b\u5167\u7684\u6c11\u4f01\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5831\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u696d\u52d9\u56de\u5831\u7387\u4ee4\u884c\u5167\u4eba\u5074\u76ee\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u9023\u8cc7\u7522\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5b50\u865b\u70cf\u6709\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u660e\u767d\u4e86\u516c\u53f8\u5546\u696d\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f8c\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u5f9e\u4e8b\u7684\u884c\u696d\u7a76\u7adf\u5728\u884c\u696d\u5468\u671f(business cycle)\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u6b65\uff1f\u884c\u696d\u662f\u64f4\u5f35\u4e2d\u9084\u662f\u6536\u7e2e\u4e2d\uff1f\u884c\u696d\u7af6\u722d\u662f\u5426\u904e\u6e21\u6fc0\u70c8\uff1f\u5546\u696d\u6a21\u5f0f\u6709\u5426\u904e\u6642\uff1f\u8209\u4e00\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u98f2\u98df\u696d\uff0c\u4f55\u4ee5\u7d93\u6fdf\u6709\u5fa9\u7526\u4e4b\u8c61\u537b\u6709\u591a\u9593\u9152\u6a13\u62c9\u9598\uff1f\u540c\u4e00\u6642\u9593\u9ea5\u7576\u5974\u3001\u5927\u5bb6\u6a02\u3001\u5927\u5feb\u6d3b\u537b\u80fd\u52a0\u50f9\uff1f\u7576\u4efb\u98df\u706b\u934b\u53ea\u6536\u5e7e\u5341\uff0c\u6bcf\u665a\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u767e\u591a\u500b\u5ba2\uff0c\u98df\u8086\u4e0a\u5e02\u9084\u9700\u8003\u616e\u7533\u8acb\u55ce\uff1f\u628a\u63e1\u884c\u696d\u9ad8\u6f6e\u5c07\u516c\u53f8\u4e0a\u5e02\uff0c\u4f4e\u6f6e\u6642\u79c1\u6709\u5316\uff0c\u662f\u67d0\u4e9b\u4eba\u7684\u6435\u9280\u4e4b\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u9593\u64c1\u6709\u826f\u597d\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u53ca\u826f\u597d\u7684\u751f\u610f\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u624d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a00\u9577\u7dda\u6295\u8cc7\u3002\u554f\u984c\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u5927\u773e\u53c8\u5982\u4f55\u7372\u5f97\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u64da\u5462\uff1f\u5728\u4e92\u806f\u7db2\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u7372\u5f97\u6578\u64da\u4e26\u4e0d\u96e3\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u3001\u5206\u6790\u3001\u6d88\u5316\u3001\u61c9\u7528\u624d\u662f\u554f\u984c\u6240\u5728\u3002\u900f\u904e\u57fa\u672c\u5206\u6790(fundamental analysis)\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\u9078\u64c7\u512a\u52a3\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u9078\u64c7\u5230\u7406\u60f3\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u662f\u5426\u4ed8\u51fa\u592a\u9ad8\u4ee3\u50f9\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u8207\u50f9\u503c\u4e26\u7121\u7d55\u5c0d\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u4f30\u503c\u904e\u9ad8(over pricing)\u4ea6\u6709\u6642\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u932f\u50f9(mispricing)\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u57fa\u672c\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u627e\u5230\u50f9\u683c\u76f8\u5c0d\u50f9\u503c\u8f03\u5e73\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u5916\uff0c\u4ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790(technical analysis)\u627e\u51fa\u504f\u9ad8\u53ca\u504f\u4f4e\u7684\u50f9\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/28837817\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/28837817<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u80a1\u7968\u76f8\u4fe1\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\u6700\u71b1\u9580\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u6c92\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u9999\u6e2f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u751a\u9ebc\u662f\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u672c\u8cea\uff1f \u8cfc\u5165\u80a1\u7968\u5c31\u662f\u64c1 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":8226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[602147501],"tags":[222597723,603689666,603689665],"class_list":["post-4212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment","tag-222597723","tag-603689666","tag-603689665"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/s9lhKB-4212","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-1c12fa73907f2b69dd5b437e0bd3c5c7_r.jpg?fit=1000%2C750&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4212"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4212\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13247,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4212\/revisions\/13247"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}