{"id":4158,"date":"2017-11-20T18:57:47","date_gmt":"2017-11-20T10:57:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=4158"},"modified":"2018-03-22T06:51:50","modified_gmt":"2018-03-21T22:51:50","slug":"4158","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=4158","title":{"rendered":"\u6295\u8cc7\u826f\u5e2b(6)\uff1a\u80a1\u5229\u518d\u6295\u8cc7\u2500\u897f\u683c\u723e\u2502\u812b\u82e6\u6d77"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"8287\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?attachment_id=8287\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-33b4a3ec37034001f93977c342e73d01_r.jpg?fit=1000%2C750&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,750\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"v2-33b4a3ec37034001f93977c342e73d01_r\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-33b4a3ec37034001f93977c342e73d01_r.jpg?fit=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-33b4a3ec37034001f93977c342e73d01_r.jpg?fit=1000%2C750&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-8287\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-33b4a3ec37034001f93977c342e73d01_r.jpg?resize=300%2C225&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-33b4a3ec37034001f93977c342e73d01_r.jpg?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-33b4a3ec37034001f93977c342e73d01_r.jpg?resize=320%2C240&amp;ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tokuhon.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/v2-33b4a3ec37034001f93977c342e73d01_r.jpg?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u6c83\u9813\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u5091\u745e\u7c73\u2022\u897f\u683c\u723e\uff08Jeremy Siegel\uff09\u5728\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b78\u9662\u53d6\u5f97\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u535a\u58eb\u5b78\u4f4d\uff0c\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u8b49\u5238\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u6b0a\u5a01\u4e36\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u548c\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u512a\u79c0\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u69cb\u7684\u9867\u554f\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u70ba\u300aKiplinger&#8217; s\u300b\u96dc\u8a8c\u5beb\u4f5c\u5c08\u6b04\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u300a\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831\u300b\u4e36\u300a\u5df4\u502b\u5468\u520a\u300b\u4e36\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u6642\u5831\u300b\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5167\u5916\u65b0\u805e\u5a92\u9ad4\u4e0a\u767c\u8868\u591a\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u4f5c\u54c1\u300a\u80a1\u5e02\u9577\u7dda\u6cd5\u5bf6\u300b(Stocks for the Long Run)\u51fa\u7248\u65bc1994\u5e74\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u88ab\u5217\u70ba\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5341\u5927\u6295\u8cc7\u8457\u4f5c\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u6b64\u5f8c\u6b77\u7d932\u6b21\u6539\u7248\u5347\u7d1a\uff0c\u4e26\u65bc2007\u5e74\u6839\u64da\u6700\u65b0\u8cc7\u6599\u66f4\u65b0\u5230\u7b2c4\u7248\u3002\u897f\u683c\u723e\u5206\u6790\u7f8e\u80a11871-2003\u5e74\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u9664\u53bb\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u56e0\u7d20\u5f8c97%\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6536\u76ca\u4f86\u81ea\u7528\u65bc\u518d\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u80a1\u5229\uff0c\u50c5\u50c53%\u4f86\u81ea\u8cc7\u672c\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u82e5\u6c92\u6709\u9032\u884c\u80a1\u5229\u518d\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5f9e7%\u964d\u81f34.5%\u3002\u6536\u76ca\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u54c1\u7a2e\u662f\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u50b5\u6b0a\u6216\u8005\u73fe\u91d1\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u662f\u6307\u6578\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u5fe0\u5be6\u64c1\u8e89\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u300b(The Future for Investors)\u51fa\u7248\u65bc2005\u5e74\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a\u9ad8\u80a1\u606f\u7387\u80a1\u7968\u5177\u5099\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u8981\u53d6\u5f97\u826f\u597d\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u9577\u671f\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u539f\u5247\u80fd\u8b93\u6240\u6709\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><b><u>\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u6559\u8a13<\/u><\/b><\/h2>\n<p>\u897f\u683c\u723e\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u4e00\u6b21\u6b21\u5730\u5e36\u9818\u6211\u5011\u9032\u884c\u6642\u9593\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u5c0d\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u500b\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u4f5c\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u53cd\u601d\uff0c\u985b\u8986\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u50b3\u7d71\u7406\u5ff5\uff0c\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5341\u5206\u5bf6\u8cb4\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u6559\u8a13\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>1. \u6307\u6578\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u77ed\u677f\uff1a\u5f9e1957\u5e74\u6a19\u6e96\u666e\u723e500\u6307\u6578\u8a95\u751f\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u9678\u7e8c\u52a0\u5165\u5230\u9019\u500b\u6307\u6578\u4e2d\u7684\u8d85\u904e900\u5bb6\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6295\u8cc7\u6536\u76ca\u6bd4\u4e0d\u4e0a\u6700\u521d\u5c31\u5728\u8a72\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u7684500\u5bb6\u539f\u59cb\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5c07\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u6557\u7cfb\u65bc\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u4e0d\u65b7\u7528\u5feb\u901f\u6210\u9577\u7684\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\u53d6\u4ee3\u6307\u6578\u4e2d\u589e\u9577\u7de9\u6162\u7684\u8001\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u9019\u53cd\u800c\u6703\u4f7f\u56de\u5831\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2. \u589e\u9577\u7387\u7684\u9677\u9631\uff1a\u548c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u76f4\u89ba\u6b63\u597d\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u9ad8\u6210\u9577\u7684\u65b0\u8208\u7522\u696d\u4e36\u516c\u53f8\u6216\u8005\u570b\u5bb6\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u5e36\u4f86\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u9ad8\u56de\u5831\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6703\u6389\u9032\u300c\u589e\u9577\u7387\u9677\u9631\u300d\uff0c\u70ba\u5275\u65b0\u548c\u7f8e\u597d\u524d\u666f\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e86\u904e\u9ad8\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>3. \u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\uff1a\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u9577\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u4e26\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8cf4\u65bc\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u589e\u9577\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u589e\u9577\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u589e\u9577\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5dee\u7570\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u56e0\u70ba\u6cd5\u5f8b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u963b\u529b\u5c0d\u83f2\u529b\u6d66\u2022\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u516c\u53f8\u524d\u666f\u62b1\u6709\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u5b83\u4ecd\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u4e86\u8f03\u5feb\u7684\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u300c\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u4e36\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u548c\u80a1\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u9019\u4e09\u8005\u70ba\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u5275\u9020\u4e86\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>4. \u6b77\u4e45\u5f4c\u5805\u7684\u52dd\u5229\uff1a\u6b77\u4e45\u5f4c\u5805\u7684\u8001\u80a1\u7968\u6230\u52dd\u4e86\u52c7\u731b\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u5f8c\u4f86\u8005\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u597d\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4f86\u81ea\u64c1\u6709\u77e5\u540d\u54c1\u724c\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u6d88\u8cbb\u54c1\u884c\u696d\u548c\u88fd\u85e5\u884c\u696d\u3002\u5370\u8b49\u4e86\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf\uff1a\u300c\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u53c8\u5bec\u53c8\u6df1\u7684\u58d5\u6e9d\u4fdd\u8b77\u8457\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u6216\u670d\u52d9\u624d\u80fd\u5e36\u7d66\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u300d\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u65d7\u8266\u4f01\u696d\u300d\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u6709\u4e09\u500b\u57fa\u672c\u7279\u5fb5\uff1a\u7565\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\uff1b\u8207\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u6301\u5e73\u7684\u80a1\u5229\u7387\uff1b\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u9577\u671f\u5229\u6f64\u589e\u9577\u7387\u3002\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u597d\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4e2d\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u96bb\u5e73\u5747\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u8d85\u904e27\u3002<\/p>\n<p>5. IPO\u7684\u7cdf\u7cd5\u8868\u73fe\uff1a\u9996\u6b21\u516c\u958b\u767c\u884c\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4e2d\u5931\u6557\u8005\u9060\u9060\u9ad8\u8d85\u904e\u6210\u529f\u8005\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u56de\u5831\u4f4e\u65bc\u8001\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u98a8\u96aa\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u65e2\u7136\u300c\u8001\u7684\u300d\u7e3d\u6bd4\u300c\u65b0\u7684\u300d\u8868\u73fe\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebd\u7576\u521d\u300c\u65b0\u7684\u300d\u9084\u8981\u88ab\u5275\u9020\u51fa\u4f86\u5462\uff1f\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff1a\u5c0d\u65bc\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u4e36\u98a8\u96aa\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u53ca\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u5bb6\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\u80fd\u5920\u5275\u9020\u51fa\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5c0d\u65bc\u61f7\u8457\u71b1\u5207\u5e0c\u671b\u6355\u6349\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u537b\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u9a45\u52d5\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u9032\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e86\u904e\u9ad8\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6\u6240\u8a00\uff1a\u300c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u65b0\u767c\u884c\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u90fd\u5728\u9069\u5b9c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0b\u92b7\u552e\u2014\u2014\u5c0d\u80a1\u7968\u92b7\u552e\u8005\u9069\u5b9c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5c0d\u8cfc\u8cb7\u8005\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebd\u9069\u5b9c\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>6. \u79d1\u6280\u7684\u4e8c\u91cd\u6027\uff1a\u50b3\u7d71\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u5ff5\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u901a\u904e\u8cfc\u8cb7\u5e36\u4f86\u65b0\u7522\u54c1\u65b0\u767c\u660e\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8ca1\u5bcc\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f34\u96a8\u9019\u4e9b\u5049\u5927\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u800c\u589e\u9577\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9019\u500b\u89c0\u9ede\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u548c\u5229\u6f64\u589e\u9577\u662f\u5169\u78bc\u4e8b\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u662f\u751f\u7522\u529b\u7684\u5275\u9020\u8005\u548c\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u6bc0\u6ec5\u8005\u3002\u6700\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f1999-2003\u5e74\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u5149\u7e96\u6280\u8853\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u9032\u6b65\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u96fb\u4fe1\u696d\u56b4\u91cd\u4f9b\u904e\u65bc\u6c42\uff0c\u96fb\u4fe1\u516c\u53f8\u88ab\u8feb\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u50f9\uff0c\u5c0d\u5229\u6f64\u9020\u6210\u56b4\u91cd\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u4e09\u5bb6\u96fb\u4fe1\u5de8\u982d\u548c\u5176\u9980113\u5bb6\u96fb\u4fe1\u516c\u53f8\u9678\u7e8c\u7834\u7522\u3002\u4ee5\u81f4\u4e00\u4f4d\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u75be\u547c\uff1a\u300c\u4f60\u5011\u9019\u4e9b\u50a2\u4f19\u5fc5\u9808\u505c\u6b62\u767c\u660e\u65b0\u6280\u8853\u4e86\uff01\u300d<\/p>\n<p>7. 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Morris\uff09\u662f\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e00\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5f9e1925\u5e74\u52302003\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u628a\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7d05\u5229\u90fd\u518d\u5ea6\u6295\u8cc7\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7159\u8349\u5de8\u4eba\u83f2\u529b\u6d66\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\uff08\u73fe\u5df2\u6b78Altria\u96c6\u5718\u6240\u6709\uff09\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebd\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u7387\u5c07\u70ba17%\u3002\u9019\u9060\u9060\u8d85\u904e\u4e86\u80a1\u7968\u6bcf\u5e747.3%\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u7387\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u57281925\u5e74\u8cb7\u4e0b\u83f2\u529b\u6d66\u83ab\u91cc\u65af1000\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c2005\u5e74\u9019\u4e9b\u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u503c\u5df2\u7d93\u8d85\u904e25\u842c\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f86\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e00\u4e0b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u57281950\u5e74\u628a\u9322\u6295\u7d66\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5169\u500b\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6703\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebd\u4e0d\u540c\uff1a\u7576\u5e74\u6700\u5c16\u7aef\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u2014\u2014\u96fb\u8166\u88fd\u9020\u5ee0\u5546IBM\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8c8c\u4e0d\u9a5a\u4eba\u7684\u65b0\u6fa4\u897f\u6a19\u6e96\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\uff08 Standard Oil of New Jersey\uff09\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u73fe\u5728\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4ecd\u7136\u8a8d\u70baIBM\u6703\u662f\u7576\u6642\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5c0d\u8c61\u3002\u78ba\u5be6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7528\u66f4\u5bec\u6cdb\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u6307\u6a19\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u6210\u9577\u6027\uff0cIBM\u662f\u4eca\u5f8c53\u5e74\u4e2d\u7684\u8d0f\u5bb6\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u5206\u7d05\u548c\u6536\u76ca\u4e09\u500b\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u90fd\u9060\u9060\u8d85\u51fa\u6a19\u6e96\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6a19\u6e96\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u537b\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u70ba14.42%\uff0c\u800cIBM\u662f13.83%\u3002\u5c0f\u5c0f\u534a\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u7684\u5dee\u5225\uff0c\u8b93\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u6771\u5728\u904e\u53bb53\u5e74\u4e2d\u6536\u76ca\u9ad8\u51fa\u4e8625%\u3002\u5982\u679c\u57281950\u5e74\u6295\u8cc71000\u7f8e\u5143\u8cfc\u8cb7\u6a19\u6e96\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c2005\u5e74\u50f9\u503c126\u842c\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5728IBM\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u53ea\u80fd\u5f97\u5230100\u842c\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0d\u5230\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u897f\u683c\u723e\u4e00\u6b21\u53c8\u4e00\u6b21\u5730\u767c\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u81ea\u5f9e1950\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u597d\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u662f\u5168\u570b\u4e73\u88fd\u54c1\u516c\u53f8\uff08National Dairy Products\uff09\uff08\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u5361\u592b\u98df\u54c1\uff09\uff0c\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u7387\u70ba15.47%\uff1b\u96f7\u8afe\u7159\u8349\u63a7\u80a1\u516c\u53f8\uff08RJ Reynolds Tobacco\uff09\uff0c\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u738715.16% 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\u4f30\u50f9\uff08Valuation\uff09\uff1a\u7a4d\u7d2f\u90a3\u4e9b\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u5176\u9810\u671f\u589e\u9577\u800c\u8a00\u6709\u8457\u5408\u7406\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u9996\u6b21\u516c\u958b\u767c\u884c\u80a1\u7968\u4e36\u71b1\u9580\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u90a3\u4e9b\u666e\u904d\u8a8d\u70ba\u300c\u5fc5\u9808\u300d\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u7522\u696d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u90e8\u9580\u7b56\u7565\u4e2d\uff0c\u897f\u683c\u723e\u63a8\u85a6\u77f3\u6cb9\u4e36\u885b\u751f\u4fdd\u5065\u548c\u65e5\u5e38\u6d88\u8cbb\u54c1\u3002\u4ed6\u9084\u63a8\u85a6\u4e86\u6700\u4f4e\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u7b56\u7565\u4e36\u6700\u4f73\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u548c\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u723e\u54c8\u6492\u97cb\u516c\u53f8\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><b><u>\u76f8\u95dc\u8457\u4f5c<\/u><\/b><\/h2>\n<p>&#8220;Stock for the Long Run&#8221; by Jeremy Siegel (1994)\uff0c\u4e2d\u8b6f\u672c\u540d\u70ba\u300a\u80a1\u5e02\u9577\u7dda\u6cd5\u5bf6\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n<figure><img 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