{"id":1680,"date":"2003-02-08T18:21:00","date_gmt":"2003-02-08T10:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/2003\/02\/08\/%e8%b2%a1%e5%a6%93%e5%a4%a0%e8%ac%9b%e2%94%80%e2%94%80%e6%80%aa%e6%8b%9b%e6%95%91%e6%a8%93%e5%b8%822003-02-08\/"},"modified":"2018-02-07T22:31:44","modified_gmt":"2018-02-07T14:31:44","slug":"%e8%b2%a1%e5%a6%93%e5%a4%a0%e8%ac%9b%e2%94%80%e2%94%80%e6%80%aa%e6%8b%9b%e6%95%91%e6%a8%93%e5%b8%822003-02-08","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=1680","title":{"rendered":"\u8ca1\u5993\u5920\u8b1b\u2500\u2500\u602a\u62db\u6551\u6a13\u5e02(2003-02-08)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6240\u8b02\u4e00\u767e\u6b72\u5514\u898b\u7956\u5b97\u90fd\u6709\u65b0\u805e\u807d\uff0c\u4eca\u65e5\u591a\u4efd\u5831\u7d19\u90fd\u7528\u986f\u8457\u7bc7\u5e45\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u67d0\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5cf6\u570b\u8ca1\u5718\u6703\u6548\u6cd5\u8036\u7a4c\uff0c\u6253\u6551\u4e16\u4eba\uff0c\u62ef\u6551\u8a72\u5cf6\u570b\u3001\u9130\u8fd1\u7684\u534a\u5cf6\u570b\uff0c\u53ca\u9999\u6e2f\u5462\u4e00\u500b\u7121\u5587\u7121\u80fd\u7684\u60b2\u60c5\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u8ca0\u8cc7\u7522\u968e\u7d1a\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u8a72\u8ca1\u5718\u6545\u4f5c\u795e\u79d8\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u900f\u9732\u4efb\u4f55\u8a73\u7d30\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6982\u5ff5\u6027\u5730\u7c21\u4ecb\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u4e26\u53e3\u53e3\u8072\u8072\u662f\u300c\u9072\u64c5\u300d\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u4e08\u516b\u91d1\u525b\uff0c\u6478\u4e0d\u8457\u982d\u8166\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u96f6\u8072\u96dc\u788e\u5730\u770b\u5831\u7ae0\u7684\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u672c\u4f86\u4e5f\u4e00\u6a23\u6728\u5bb0\u7f8a\uff0c\u5f8c\u4f86\u4e00\u770b\u9019\u8a08\u5283\u662f\u67d0\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5cf6\u570b\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u5275\uff0c\u7d93\u904e\u4e00\u7ffb\u806f\u60f3\uff0c\u7e3d\u7d50\u51fa\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u53ea\u662f\u5169\u500b\u5b57\u2500\u2500\u8ca1\u6280\u3002\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u91cd\u6eab\u4e00\u4e0b\u4ee5\u5f80\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u500b\u6848\uff0c\u4e26\u8a66\u5716\u89e3\u6790\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u4fe1\u8001\u4e00\u8f29\u7684\u80a1\u6c11\uff0c\u6216\u5c0d\u9999\u6e2f\u80a1\u58c7\u6b77\u53f2\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u4eba\u5982\u7b46\u8005\u90fd\u6703\u8a18\u5f97\u4e03\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u67d0\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5cf6\u570b\u6709\u67d0\u8ca1\u5718\u66fe\u7d93\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5c55\u62f3\u8173\u7136\u5f8c\u7070\u98db\u7159\u6ec5\u3002\u800c\u8a72\u8ca1\u5718\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u4ee3\u8868\u4f5c\u662f\u4ee5\u6e2f\u5e63\u4e00\u5143\u7684\u50f9\u9322\u5c07\u79c1\u4eba\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e5d\u5104\u591a\u5143\u8cfc\u5165\u7684\u300c\u53f0\u7063\u5c0f\u5cf6\u5927\u5ec8\u300d\u6ce8\u5165\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u4ee5\u5341\u4e94\u5104\u591a\u8ce3\u7d66\u67d0\u937e\u610f\u300c\u78a7\u5201\u300d\u7684\u4e16\u5bb6\u5b50\u5f1f\u3002\u8a72\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u8cb7\u7a7a\u8ce3\u7a7a\u4e4b\u4e0b\u7372\u5f97\u6578\u4ee5\u5104\u8a08\u7684\u975e\u7d93\u5e38\u6027\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u4e0d\u7279\u6b62\uff0c\u9084\u63ed\u958b\u4e00\u5e55\u5e55\u7684\u5546\u754c\u72af\u7f6a\u50b3\u5947\uff0c\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u53ef\u770b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7db2\u5740\uff1a <\/p>\n

<\/font>http:\/\/www.angelfire.com\/space\/tokuhon\/stock_disaster.txt<\/font><\/a> <\/p>\n

\u5176\u5be6\u8aaa\u7a7f\u4e86\uff0c\u8a72\u8ca1\u5718\u5148\u4ee5\u5927\u5ec8\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u79df\u91d1\u6536\u5165\u4f5c\u70ba\u62b5\u62bc\u878d\u8cc7\uff0c\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u4fbf\u662f\u9280\u4e3b\u76e4\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u5c07\u7269\u696d\u9023\u878d\u8cc7\u6ce8\u5165\u4e00\u9593\u7a7a\u6bbc\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u7a7a\u6bbc\u516c\u53f8\u81ea\u7136\u53ea\u503c\uff04\uff11\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u7576\u6642\u6c11\u667a\u672a\u555f\uff0c\u4ee5\u70ba\u662f\u5927\u80a1\u6771\u9001\u4e86\u4e00\u5ea7\u5927\u5ec8\u7d66\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u525b\u5de7\u53c8\u6709\u50bb\u4ed4\u80af\u52a0\u5e7e\u5104\u8cfc\u5165\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u80fd\u7a7a\u624b\u5957\u5229\u3002\u5957\u7528\u80a1\u58c7\u7684\u8853\u8a9e\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5373\u65e5\u9bae\u7763\u624b\u6307\u4e0a\u5348\u8cb7\u5165\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u53e3\u8b1b\u53e3\u8ce0\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u52a0\u5e7e\u500b\u50f9\u4f4d\u5728\u6536\u5e02\u524d\u6cbd\u51fa\u5957\u5229\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4eba\u6703\u554f\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u5462\u4e00\u500b\u9ad8\u4f4d\u63a5\u8ca8\u7684\u50bb\u4ed4\u5462\uff1f\u8a18\u5f97\uff11\uff19\uff18\uff18\u5e74\u7b46\u8005\u521d\u51fa\u80a1\u58c7\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u6709\u4e00\u9593\u5efa\u7bc9\u80a1\u662f\u7531\u4e9e\u6d32\u67d0\u6cb3\u6d41\u5165\u6d77\u53e3\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u59d1\u723a\u638c\u8235\uff0c\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u7576\u6642\u7684\u696d\u52d9\u4e00\u5927\u7c6e\uff0c\u6709\u5efa\u7bc9\u3001\u6c96\u6652\u3001\u4fbf\u5229\u5e97\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5e74\u5e74\u5747\u5229\u6f64\u5fae\u8584\uff0c\u5ffd\u7136\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u505c\u724c\uff0c\u539f\u4f86\u6709\u6240\u8b02\u795e\u79d8\u8cc7\u91d1\u4f5c\u50f9\u4e8c\u5341\u5104\u6d3d\u8cfc\u96c6\u5718\u7e3d\u90e8\u7269\u696d\u7063\u4ed4\u300c\u59d1\u723a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u300d\uff0c\u8a18\u5f97\u7576\u6642\u7684\u65e5\u6708\u5831\u5927\u5b57\u6a19\u984c\u8aaa\u8ce3\u8cc7\u7522\u5229\u6f64\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u672c\u696d\u6240\u8cfa\u3002\u8a72\u795e\u79d8\u8cc7\u91d1\u540d\u70ba\u300c\u570b\u7236\u570b\u969b\u300d\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u50b3\u805e\u6eff\u5929\u98db\uff0c\u6709\u8aaa\u662f\u570b\u5167\u67d0\u5e02\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u53c8\u6709\u8aaa\u662f\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u66f4\u6709\u8aaa\u662f\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6d32\u5bcc\u8c6a\u6295\u8cc7\u9999\u6e2f\u7269\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u8a72\u8cc7\u91d1\u53c8\u633a\u6709\u8aa0\u610f\uff0c\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u9280\u652f\u4ed8\u4e86\u6578\u5343\u842c\u7d30\u8a02\uff0c\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u842c\u773e\u671f\u5f85\u8a72\u8cc7\u91d1\u652f\u4ed8\u9918\u4e0b\u6309\u91d1\u6642\uff0c\u5ffd\u7136\u81e8\u9580\u812b\u8173\uff0c\u6158\u88ab\u6bba\u8a02\uff0c\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5e02\u5834\u50b3\u51fa\u6210\u9280\u884c\u878d\u8cc7\u51fa\u73fe\u554f\u984c\u3002\u8aaa\u7a7f\u4e86\uff0c\u524d\u4eba\u641e\u6382\u4e86\u8ca1\u52d9\u516c\u53f8\u51fa\u9322\u8ced\u767d\u982d\u7247\u8f38\u6253\u8d0f\u8981\uff0c\u5f8c\u4f86\u8005\u50be\u5514\u6382\u6578\uff0c\u7121\u9322\u57cb\u55ae\uff0c\u5c31\u4fc2\u5481\u7c21\u55ae\u3002\u5957\u7528\u80a1\u58c7\u7684\u8853\u8a9e\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e0a\u5348\u9020\u5b56\u5c55\u8cb7\u8ca8\uff0c\u4e0b\u5348\u88ab\u8ffd\u6309\u91d1\u7121\u9322\u6bd4\u7136\u5f8c\u88ab\u65ac\u5009\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u7528\u8ca1\u6280\u589e\u52a0\u571f\u5730\u6216\u6a13\u623f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u65e9\u5df2\u6709\u4e4b\u3002\u65b0\u5730\u3001\u6046\u57fa\u3001\u5357\u8c50\u7b49\u5747\u5927\u91cf\u8cfc\u5165\u4e59\u7a2e\u63db\u5730\u6b0a\u76ca\u66f8(Letter B)\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u571f\u5730\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5957\u7528\u80a1\u58c7\u7684\u8853\u8a9e\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u4f4e\u4f4d\u5927\u91cf\u8cb7\u5165\u672a\u4f86\u571f\u5730\u4f9b\u61c9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a(Call Option)\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u7559\u610f\u671f\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u4e26\u4e0d\u5747\u7b49\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u8cb7\u5bb6\u6709\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u6cbd\u5bb6\u6709\u7fa9\u52d9\u8b93\u8cb7\u5bb6\u884c\u99db\u8a72\u6b0a\u5229\u3002\u5730\u7522\u5546\u8cb7\u5165Letter B\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u6b0a\u7528\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5411\u653f\u5e9c\u63db\u5730\u76ae\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u5e02\u93ae\u7684\u5927\u578b\u5730\u7522\u767c\u5c55\u5747\u662f\u4ee5\u9019\u7a2e\u5f62\u5f0f\u63db\u5730\uff0c\u597d\u8655\u662f\u6301\u6709\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u6210\u672c\u9060\u6bd4\u6301\u6709\u73fe\u8ca8\u70ba\u4f4e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u884c\u99db\u6642\u9593\u7531\u6301\u6709\u8005\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u8b8a\u76f8\u4f4e\u50f9\u63db\u5730\u4e5f\u53ea\u80fd\u6697\u555e\u5e95\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4ee5\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u5206\u6790\u67d0\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5cf6\u570b\u8ca1\u5718\u7684\u300c\u9072\u64c5\u300d\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u5411\u8ca0\u8cc7\u7522\u696d\u6d3e\u767c\u300c\u5148\u6cbd\u5f8c\u8cb7\u300d\u7684\u6a13\u5b87\u671f\u6b0a\u3002\u4e0b\u5716\u662f\u4fe1\u5831\u7c21\u4ecb\u5176\u8a08\u5283\u6d41\u7a0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u985e\u6bd4\uff1a <\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u7533\u8acb\u514d\u8cbb\u671f\u6b0a
\u3000\u3000\u2193
\u65bc\u671f\u6b0a\u6709\u6548\u671f
\u516d\u500b\u6708\u5167\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6301\u6709
\u3000\u3000\u2193
\u767c\u884c\u5546\u5411\u671f\u6b0a\u6301\u6709\u8005
\u8cfc\u5165\u5546\u54c1\uff08\u6a13\u5b87\uff09
\u3000\u3000\u2193
\u6301\u6709\u8005\u5411\u767c\u884c\u5546
\u652f\u4ed8\u5229\u606f\uff08\u79df\u91d1\uff09
\u3000\u3000\u2193
\u4e94\u5e74\u5167\u6301\u6709\u8005\u6709\u6b0a
\u5411\u767c\u884c\u5546\u8cfc\u56de\u5546\u54c1 <\/p>\n

\u5927\u5bb6\u6703\u554f\uff1a\u9019\u500b\u8ca1\u5718\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u9019\u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u5f97\u76ca\uff1f\u8acb\u7559\u610f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6771\u65b9\u65e5\u5831\u520a\u51fa\u7684\u8a08\u5283\u689d\u4ef6\u3002\u8a72\u8ca1\u5718\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u85cd\u5b50\u7684\u9999\u6e2f\u4f4f\u5b85\u7269\u696d\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u4e26\u9396\u6b7b\u5176\u4e94\u5e74\u79df\u91d1\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u7092\u5de6\u5481\u591a\u5e74\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u67d0\u677f\u516b\u5b57\u982d\u80a1\u7968\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e00\u5169\u5e74\u6642\u9593\u8b8a\u6210\u7b49\u540c\u5ee2\u7d19\u7684\u50f9\u503c\uff08\u4e00\u624b\u80a1\u7968\uff11\uff10\uff10\uff10\u80a1\uff0c\u6bcf\u80a1\u5e02\u50f9\u5e7e\u4ed9\uff0c\u5373\u4fc2\u53ea\u503c\u6536\u5341\u5143\uff0c\u6263\u9664\u99db\u8cbb\uff0c\u985e\u540c\u5ee2\u7d19\uff09\uff0c\u4e00\u9593\u672a\u4e0a\u5e02\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u696d\u52d9\u901a\u901a\u4e0d\u77e5\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u53c8\u540c\u516b\u5b57\u982d\u80a1\u7968\u6709\u4f55\u5206\u5225\uff1f <\/p>\n

\u6301\u6709\u8a72\u300c\u7d19\u300d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ce3\u6a13\uff0c\u4f46\u4fc2\u8981\u88dc\u5dee\u50f9\u5f8c\u624d\u7531\u8ca1\u5718\u51fa\u9762\u505a\u50b5\u52d9\u91cd\u7d44\uff0c\u4f46\u50b5\u52d9\u8cac\u4efb\u4ecd\u7531\u539f\u696d\u4e3b\u8ca0\u8cac\u3002\u8ca0\u8cc7\u7522\u696d\u4e3b\u5982\u679c\u6709\u8ca1\u529b\u88dc\u5dee\u50f9\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7368\u81ea\u540c\u9280\u884c\u50be\uff0c\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u7531P+X%\u8b8a\u6210P-X%\uff08\u56e0\u70ba\u9280\u884c\u627f\u64d4\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u6e1b\u4f4e\u4e86\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9858\u610f\u6e1b\u606f\uff09\u3002\u6709\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u7528\u627e\u4f62\uff0c\u7121\u689d\u4ef6\u627e\u4f62\u7684\u4eba\u6839\u672c\u7121\u7528\u3002 <\/p>\n

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