{"id":1278,"date":"2008-05-12T01:54:00","date_gmt":"2008-05-11T17:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/2008\/05\/12\/%e8%8f%af%e4%bb%94%e9%87%91%e5%8f%a5%e2%94%80%e2%94%80%e9%81%b8%e8%82%a1%e6%8c%81%e8%82%a1%e9%82%84%e6%98%af%e7%b0%a1%e5%96%ae%e7%9a%84%e5%a5%bd2008-05-12\/"},"modified":"2018-02-07T21:52:06","modified_gmt":"2018-02-07T13:52:06","slug":"%e8%8f%af%e4%bb%94%e9%87%91%e5%8f%a5%e2%94%80%e2%94%80%e9%81%b8%e8%82%a1%e6%8c%81%e8%82%a1%e9%82%84%e6%98%af%e7%b0%a1%e5%96%ae%e7%9a%84%e5%a5%bd2008-05-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=1278","title":{"rendered":"\u83ef\u4ed4\u91d1\u53e5\u2500\u2500\u9078\u80a1\u6301\u80a1\u9084\u662f\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u597d(2008\/05\/12)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u300c\u4f60\u60f3\u904e\u8db3\u766e\u5481\u8f38\uff0c\u5b9a\u4fc2\u60b6\u60b6\u5730\u8d0f\uff1f\u300d\u9019\u53e5\u662f \u5289\u5fb7\u83ef \u5148\u751f\u5728\u300a\u8ced\u4fe0<\/span>1999<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u300b\u7684\u91d1\u53e5\uff0c\u9ede\u51fa\u4e86\u7b46\u8005\u7684\u89aa\u8eab\u7d93\u6b77\u2500\u2500\u5343\u8f9b\u842c\u82e6\u57cb\u9996\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u8dd1\u8f38\u7121\u5fc3\u63d2\u67f3\u800c\u8cb7\u7684\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u6295\u8cc7\u71b1\u6f6e\uff0c\u5747\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u6240\u8b02\u71b1\u9580\u80a1\u6216\u4e3b\u984c\u80a1\uff0c\u53c8\u6216\u8005\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u4e0a\u5e02\u7684\u80a1\u985e\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u7a2e\u690d\u3001\u926c\u696d\u3001\u947d\u982d\u3001\u7279\u92fc\u4e4b\u985e\u7684\u9ad8\u589e\u9577\u80a1\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u8208\u8d77\u4e00\u6642\uff0c\u53ef\u9577\u9060\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u8dd1\u8f38\u4e00\u4e9b\u60b6\u5230\u767c\u614c\u7684\u5927\u85cd\u7c4c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u6c83\u9813\u5546\u5b78\u9662 \u91d1\u878d\u5b78 \u6559\u6388\u897f\u683c\u723e\uff08<\/span>Jeremy Siegel<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\uff09\u900f\u904e\u8a08\u7b97\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u3001\u6d3e\u606f\u3001\u5206\u62c6\u696d\u52d9\u7b49\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u300c\u589e\u9577\u7387\u9677\u9631\u300d\uff1a\u4ee5<\/span>1957<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e74\u6a19\u6e96\u666e\u723e<\/span>500<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u6307\u6578\u7684\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u8cc7\u6599\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\uff0c\u50f9\u503c\u80a1\u5982\u65b0\u6fa4\u897f\u6a19\u6e96\u77f3\u6cb9\u53ef\u4ee5\u8dd1\u5b34\u589e\u9577\u80a1\u5982<\/span>IBM<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u897f\u683c\u723e\u7684<\/span><span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u79d8\u5bc6\u6b66\u5668\u662f\u300c\u80a1\u5229\u518d\u6295\u8cc7\u300d\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u628a\u80a1\u606f\u73fe\u91d1\u589e\u6301\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u300c\u4ee5\u80a1\u4ee3\u606f\u300d\uff0c\u5e74\u5e74\u80a1\u6578\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u591a\uff0c\u5468\u606f\u7387<\/span>1%<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u7684\u589e\u9577\u80a1<\/span>30<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e74\u5f8c\u80a1\u6578\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5230<\/span>1.34<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u500d\uff0c\u800c\u540c\u4e00\u6642\u671f\u5468\u606f\u7387<\/span>4%<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u80a1\u80a1\u6578\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5230<\/span>3.24<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u500d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u80a1\u50f9\u8dd1\u8f38\u9054<\/span>60%<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\uff0c\u50f9\u503c\u80a1\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6253\u548c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u7b46\u8005\u628a\u897f\u683c\u723e\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u61c9\u7528\u5728\u6e2f\u80a1\uff0c\u5047\u5b9a\u5728<\/span>2000<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e74<\/span>1<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u6708\u4efd\u4ee5<\/span>10<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u842c\u5143\u8cfc\u5165\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u6536\u5230\u80a1\u606f\u5f8c\u7528\u8a72\u6708\u6536\u5e02\u50f9\u8cfc\u5165\u80a1\u4efd\uff0c<\/span>2008<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e74<\/span>4<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u6708<\/span>30<span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u65e5<\/span><span style=\"font-family:\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u6295\u8cc7\u8868\u73fe\u5982\u4f55\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width:99pt;background-color:transparent;border:windowtext 1pt solid;\"><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u9280\u884c\u80a1<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577<\/span>1.59<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u500d<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:windowtext 1pt solid;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">005<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u532f\u8c50<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<\/span>46%<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$209,939<\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:windowtext 1pt solid;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">011<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u6046\u751f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<\/span>1.06<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u500d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$308,811<\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:windowtext 1pt solid;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:windowtext 1pt solid;width:99pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\"><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5730\u7522\u80a1<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577<\/span>89%<\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">001<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u9577\u5be6<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<\/span>24%<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$149,581<\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">012<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u6046\u5730<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<\/span>42%<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$232,528<\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">016<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u65b0\u5730<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<\/span>89%<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$232,528<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:windowtext 1pt solid;width:99pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\"><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5de5\u5546\u80a1<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577<\/span>99%<\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">013<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u548c\u9ec3<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff1a<\/span>32%<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$83,193<\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">019<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u592a\u53e4\uff21<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<\/span>1.43<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u500d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$316,641<\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">087<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u592a\u53e4\uff22<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<\/span>2.26<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u500d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$449,078<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:windowtext 1pt solid;width:99pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\"><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u516c\u7528\u80a1<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577<\/span>1.80<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u500d<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">002<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u4e2d\u96fb<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<\/span>90%<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$264,273<\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">003<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u7164\u6c23<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<\/span>1.29<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u500d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$285,947<\/td>\n<td style=\"border-right:windowtext 1pt solid;border-top:#ece9d8;border-left:#ece9d8;width:117pt;border-bottom:windowtext 1pt solid;background-color:transparent;\" valign=\"top\">006<span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u6e2f\u71c8<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<\/span>98%<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u5e02\u503c\uff1a<\/span>$291,469<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"font-family:\u65b0\u7d30\u660e\u9ad4;\">\u56db\u985e\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u5c45\u7136\u662f\u516c\u7528\u80a1\u8dd1\u8d0f\uff0c\u53d7\u76e1\u842c\u6c11\u671d\u62dc\u7684\u532f\u8c50\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5305\u5c3e\u3002\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u662f\u6700\u5730\u7522\u80a1\uff0c\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u4e00\u96bb\u662f\u7576\u5e74\u56e0\u70ba<\/span>3G<span 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