{"id":1068,"date":"2009-04-13T12:08:00","date_gmt":"2009-04-13T04:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/2009\/04\/13\/%e8%bd%89%e8%b2%bc%e6%a8%93%e5%83%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b8%e6%8f%ad%e7%a4%ba%e8%b2%b7%e6%a8%93%e6%99%82%e6%a9%9f\/"},"modified":"2018-02-07T21:49:37","modified_gmt":"2018-02-07T13:49:37","slug":"%e8%bd%89%e8%b2%bc%e6%a8%93%e5%83%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b8%e6%8f%ad%e7%a4%ba%e8%b2%b7%e6%a8%93%e6%99%82%e6%a9%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=1068","title":{"rendered":"[\u8f49\u8cbc]\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u63ed\u793a\u8cb7\u6a13\u6642\u6a5f"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u63ed\u793a\u8cb7\u6a13\u6642\u6a5f(\u539f\u6587)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.panasian.com.hk\/articles_details.asp?type=1&id=32<\/a><\/p>\n

4\/6\/2009<\/strong>
\u300a\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e00\u9031\u300b\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u63ed\u793a\u8cb7\u6a13\u6642\u6a5f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u4f55\u67cf\u57fa<\/p>\n

\u6309\u8a08\u5283\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8 \u2013 \u7d93\u6fdf\u5e2b<\/p>\n

\u7562\u696d\u65bc\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\uff0c\u7372\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ca\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u96d9\u78a9\u58eb\u5b78\u4f4d\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u8077\u65bc\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u9580\u53ca\u9280\u884c\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\uff1b\u73fe\u8ca0\u8cac\u6309\u8a08\u5283\u696d\u52d9\u7b56\u7565\u53ca\u6309\u63ed\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u64c5\u9577\u5e02\u5834\u7814\u7a76\u53ca\u8ca1\u52d9\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n

\u7b46\u8005\u4e4b\u524d\u9810\u671f2009\u5e74\u6a13\u50f9\u6709\u4e00\u6210\u81f3\u4e00\u6210\u534a\u4e0b\u8abf\u7a7a\u9593\uff0c\u6536\u5230\u4e0d\u5c11\u67e5\u8a62\u95dc\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u8ad6\u64da\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n

\u7b46\u8005\u8a66\u4ee5\u6a13\u5e02\u6578\u64da\u6a21\u578b\u4f5c\u70ba\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8b93\u6709\u610f\u7f6e\u696d\u6216\u6301\u6709\u7269\u696d\u8b80\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u8d70\u52e2\u4e0b\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u638c\u63e1\u5de6\u53f3\u6a13\u5e02\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u8cfc\u5165\u6216\u51fa\u552e\u7269\u696d\u6642\u7684\u53c3\u8003\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8a0e\u8ad6\u5e36\u9ede\u5b78\u8853\u5473\u9053\uff0c\u4f46\u4e26\u975e\u523b\u610f\u8ce3\u5f04\u5b78\u8b58\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u7b46\u8005\u5e0c\u671b\u4ee5\u6578\u64da\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u5ba2\u89c0\u627e\u51fa\u5f71\u97ff\u6a13\u50f9\u9031\u671f\u4e0a\uf918\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n

\u8981\u9810\u6e2c\u6a13\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u4ec0\u9ebc\u56e0\u7d20\u5de6\u53f3\u6a13\u5e02\u3002\u4e91\u4e91\u773e\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u5931\u696d\u7387\u3001\u6309\u63ed\u606f\u7387\u3001\u7269\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2\u3001\u80a1\u5e02\u8d70\u52e2\u53ca\u65b0\u76e4\u653e\u552e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5c0d\u6a13\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2\u8d77\u95dc\u93c8\u4f5c\u7528\uff08\u7406\u7531\u8a73\u898b\u4e0b\u8868\uff09\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n

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\u56e0\u7d20<\/font><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
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\u5f71\u97ff<\/font><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\u5931\u696d\u7387<\/font><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
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\u53cd\u6620\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c\u800c\u7d93\u6fdf\u74b0\u5883\u662f\u5f71\u97ff\u6a13\u5e02\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5de5\u4f5c\u6536\u5165\u4e0d\u7a69\u4ee4\u7528\u5bb6\u5c0d\u5165\u5e02\u537b\u6b65\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u6e1b\u4f4e\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\u6309\u63ed\u606f\u7387<\/font><\/div>\n
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\u53cd\u6620\u7f6e\u696d\u6642\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u800c\u4f4e\u6309\u606f\u53ef\u5438\u5f15\u9577\u7dda\u6295\u8cc7\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n
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\u7269\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2<\/font><\/div>\n
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\u65bc\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u50be\u5411\u6295\u8cc7\u56fa\u5b9a\u8cc7\u7522\u4ee5\u4fdd\u503c\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u7e2e\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u4e26\u4e0d\u4fdd\u503c\uff0c\u73fe\u91d1\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u537b\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4f8b\u5b501999\u5e74\u81f32004\u5e74\u7d93\u6b77\u9577\u6642\u671f\u901a\u7e2e\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u4ea6\u61c9\u8072\u4e0b\u632b\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\u80a1\u5e02\u8d70\u52e2<\/font><\/div>\n
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\u53cd\u6620\u7d93\u6fdf\u8d70\u52e2\u53ca\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\u65b0\u76e4\u653e\u552e<\/font><\/div>\n
<\/font> <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
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\u7269\u696d\u55ae\u4f4d\u4f9b\u61c9\u91cf\u9ad8\uff0c\u62d6\u4f4e\u6a13\u50f9\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n
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\u63a5\u8457\u6703\u4ee5\u8a08\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b (Econometric Model) \u4f86\u91cf\u5316\u5404\u56e0\u7d20\u5c0d\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 <\/font><\/p>\n

\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u662f\u6578\u64da\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5229\u7528\u5bb9\u6613\u638c\u63e1\u56e0\u7d20(\u5982\u5931\u696d\u7387\u3001\u5229\u7387\u3001\u7269\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2) \u53bb\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u8b8a\u5316 (\u5982\u6a13\u50f9)\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8a72\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u6c92\u6709\u5305\u62ec\u80a1\u5e02\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u5167\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6e2c\u80a1\u5e02\u6bd4\u9810\u6e2c\u6a13\u5e02\u66f4\u96e3\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u65b0\u76e4\u653e\u552e\u6578\u76ee\u5c0d\u6a13\u50f9\u6c92\u6709\u95dc\u9375\u4f5c\u7528(statistically insignificant).<\/font><\/p>\n

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\u5c0f\u984c\uff1a\u5de6\u53f3\u6a13\u5e02\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7d20<\/font><\/p>\n

\u904b\u75282001\u5e74\u81f32008\u5e74\u9999\u6e2f\u6a13\u5e02\u8cc7\u6599\u4f5c\u70ba\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7d50\u679c\uff1a<\/font><\/p>\n

\u6a13\u5e02\u6a21\u578b\u6307\u6578* = 146.5 \u2013 8.33<\/font> X (\u5931\u696d\u7387<\/font>) \u2013 3.65<\/font> X (\u6309\u606f<\/font>) + 3.01<\/font> X (\u7269\u50f9\u8b8a\u5316<\/font>) <\/strong><\/font>\n<\/p>\n

* \u6a13\u5e02\u6307\u6578\u70ba\u5dee\u9909\u7269\u696d\u4f30\u50f9\u7f72\u6307\u6578 <\/font>\n<\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5217\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5561\u8272\u6578\u5b57\u662f\u7cfb\u6578 (coefficient)<\/font>\uff0c\u7cfb\u6578\u6108\u5927\u53cd\u6620\u8a72\u53c3\u6578 (parameter)\uff08\u5373\u7d2b\u8272\u5b57\u9ad4\uff09<\/font> \u6108\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5982\u5931\u696d\u7387\u53471%\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u53c3\u6578\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u5408\u7406\u503c\u4fbf\u61c9\u4e0b\u8abf8.33 (2009\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u6a13\u5e02\u6307\u6578\u70ba 106)\u3002 <\/font>\n<\/p>\n

\u5957\u7528\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6578\u5b57\u65bc\u4ee5\u4e0a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d2009\u5e74\u5e95\u5931\u696d\u7387\u70ba 6%,\uff0c\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u606f\u7dad\u6301\u57283%\uff0c\u5168\u5e74\u901a\u8139\u70ba2%\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u5f97\u51fa\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u6a13\u5e02\u6307\u6578\u3002 <\/font>\n<\/p>\n

\u6a13\u5e02\u6a21\u578b\u6307\u6578 = 146.5 \u2013 8.33 X 6 \u2013 3.65 X 3 + 3.01 X 2 = 91.6 <\/font>\n<\/p>\n

\u57282009\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u6a13\u5e02\u6307\u6578\u70ba 106\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5347\u81f36%,\uff0c\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u606f\u57283%\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5728 2%\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u5408\u7406\u503c\u61c9\u70ba91.6\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u6a13\u5e02\u4ecd\u670914% \u4e0b\u8abf\u7a7a\u9593\u3002 <\/font>\n<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u8b80\u8005\u61c9\u7559\u610f\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u5c31\u5982\u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u683c\u822c\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5019\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u6703\u6709\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u800c\u6a21\u578b\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u53cd\u6620\u5176\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u3002 <\/font>\n<\/p>\n

<\/font>\n<\/p>\n

\u5931\u696d\u7387\u8207\u6a13\u50f9\u95dc\u4fc2\u6700\u5bc6\u5207 <\/font><\/strong><\/u>\n<\/p>\n

\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u6a13\u50f9\u8207\u5931\u696d\u7387\u53ca\u6309\u63ed\u606f\u7387\u5448\u8ca0\u76f8\u95dc (negative correlation)\uff0c \u5373\u5931\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u53c8\u6216\u6309\u606f\u5347\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u5c31\u6703\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\u4ea6\u7136\u3002\u800c\u901a\u8139\u5247\u548c\u6a13\u50f9\u6210\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc (positive correlation)\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u901a\u8139\u7387\u8207\u6a13\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5347\uff0c \u6a13\u50f9\u4ea6\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u901a\u8139\u8dcc\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u4ea6\u4ea6\u8dcc\u3002 <\/font>\n<\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u7d9c\u5408\u5931\u696d\u7387\u3001\u6309\u63ed\u606f\u7387\u53ca\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4e09\u5927\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6a21\u4eff\u904e\u53bb8\u5e74\u7684\u6a13\u50f9\u6548\u679c\u6975\u4f73\uff0c\u4e0b\u5716\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u7dda\u8207\u771f\u5be6\u6307\u6578\u7684\u5c0d\u7167\uff0c\u6578\u5b57\u986f\u793a\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u8207\u771f\u5be6\u8aa4\u5dee\u5c11\u65bc 5%\u3002 <\/font>\n<\/p>\n

\u7b46\u8005\u53ea\u7528\u904e\u53bb8\u5e74\u6578\u64da\u4f5c\u53c3\u8003\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u4e8c\uff0c \u9996\u5148\u662f\u50b3\u7d71\u4e0a\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5468\u671f\u7d04\u9577\u90548 \u5e74\uff0c \u7b2c\u4e8c\u662f 1997\u5e74\u6642\u7092\u98a8\u6975\u6fc3\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u8207\u57fa\u672c\u56e0\u7d20\u812b\u52fe\uff0c\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f9e\u4e2d\u62bd\u53d6\u56e0\u7d20\u4f5c\u70ba\u5206\u6790\u3002 <\/font>\n<\/p>\n

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\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u9700\u8981\u96a8\u6642\u9593\u904e\u53bb\u800c\u66f4\u65b0 \uff0c\u5426\u5247\u96a8\u5e74\u6708\u904e\u53bb\u4fbf\u6703\u5931\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u5efa\u8b70\u6709\u610f\u5165\u5e02\u4eba\u58eb\u9664\u5206\u6790\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u672c\u56e0\u7d20\u5916\uff0c\u4ea6\u8981\u5f9e\u5e02\u5834\u56e0\u7d20\u89d2\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u53c3\u8003\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ea6\u53ef\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u6d88\u5316\u529b\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56\u53ca\u79df\u91d1\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u7d0d\u5165\u8003\u616e\u7bc4\u570d\u3002 <\/font>\n<\/p>\n

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\u6839\u64da1997\u5e74\u81f32003\u5e74\u9999\u6e2f\u6a13\u5e02\u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6d6a\u4e2d\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u4e00\u6d6a\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e00\u6d6a\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5148\u662f\u53d7\u5230\u516b\u842c\u4e94\u653f\u7b56\u53ca\u4e9e\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u6025\u632b\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e00\u822c\u5728\u4e8c\u81f3\u4e09\u6210\uff0c\u8cb7\u5bb6\u300c\u8d81\u4f4e\u300d\u5438\u7d0d\u652f\u6301\u6a13\u50f9\u6a6b\u884c\uff0c\u5f85\u5e02\u5834\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u5316\u9019\u6279\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u7d93\u6fdf\u53c8\u6c92\u6709\u8d77\u514d\u8272\uff0c\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u8dcc\u52e2\u5c31\u6703\u958b\u5c55\u3002 <\/font><\/p>\n

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