{"id":1065,"date":"2009-04-22T00:07:00","date_gmt":"2009-04-21T16:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/2009\/04\/22\/%e8%bd%89%e8%bc%89%e6%a8%93%e5%83%b9%e7%9a%84%e5%9f%ba%e6%9c%ac%e5%9b%a0%e7%b4%a0%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e5%8f%8a%e5%85%b6%e5%8f%af%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e6%80%a7\/"},"modified":"2018-02-07T22:49:05","modified_gmt":"2018-02-07T14:49:05","slug":"%e8%bd%89%e8%bc%89%e6%a8%93%e5%83%b9%e7%9a%84%e5%9f%ba%e6%9c%ac%e5%9b%a0%e7%b4%a0%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e5%8f%8a%e5%85%b6%e5%8f%af%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e6%80%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=1065","title":{"rendered":"[\u8f49\u8f09]\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u56e0\u7d20\u5206\u6790\u53ca\u5176\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u5c07\u6a13\u5b87\u6210\u4ea4\u50f9\u9664\u4ee5\u5176\u5dee\u9909\u503c\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4ee3\u8868\u6bcf<\/span>1<\/span>\u5143\u5dee\u9909\u503c\u6240\u9054\u81f4\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u50f9\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u5dee\u9909\u503c\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u6a13\u5b87\u7684\u7d20\u8cea\uff0c\u6b64\u4e00\u6bd4\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u4ea4\u6613\u6a13\u5b87\u7684\u7d20\u8cea\uff0c\u800c\u4f7f\u6a13\u50f9\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7d71\u8a08\u8655\u4fbf\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u6307\u6578\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u88fd\u8a02\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u3002<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u6839\u64da\u6a13\u5b87\u9762\u7a4d\u5206\u70ba\u56db\u985e\uff0c\u6700\u5c0f\u7684<\/span>A<\/span>\u985e\u9762\u7a4d\u5c0f\u65bc<\/span>40<\/span>\u65b9\u7c73\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u7684<\/span>D<\/span>\u985e\uff0c\u5247\u5927\u65bc<\/span>100<\/span>\u65b9\u7c73\uff0c\u800c\u7d9c\u5408\u7684\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u6210\u4ea4\u5b97\u6578\u52a0\u6b0a\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u3002\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u6240\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\u6574\u9ad4\u4f4f\u5b85\u6a13\u5b87\u5728\u6487\u9664\u6a13\u9f61\u3001\u5730\u9ede\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\u5f8c\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u3002<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u6a13\u5b87\u6210\u4ea4\u50f9\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4ee3\u8868\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u4e0a\u63da\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6b64\u671f\u9593\u8f03\u591a\u6a13\u5b87\u5728\u5e02\u5340\u843d\u6210\uff0c\u8f03\u591a\u5927\u9762\u7a4d\u6a13\u5b87\u8f49\u624b\uff0c\u6216\u8f03\u591a\u65b0\u6a13\u5165\u4f19\u5427\u3002\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u901a\u904e\u5dee\u9909\u503c\u4f86\u5c07\u6a13\u50f9\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e26\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5dee\u9909\u503c\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5c0d\u524d\u63d0\u7684\u771f\u78ba\u6027\u4e26\u4e0d\u904e\u57f7\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u8aaa\uff1a\u5c31\u7b97\u5dee\u9909\u503c\u4e0d\u80fd\u6e96\u78ba\u5730\u4ee3\u8868\u6a13\u5b87\u7684\u7d20\u8cea\uff0c\u6240\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u4e5f\u80fd\u5920\u516c\u5e73\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u8b8a\u52d5\u3002\u6211\u5011\u6703\u505a\u904e\u4e9b\u6e2c\u8a66\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u6a13\u6307\u662f\u5426\u6703\u53d7\u540c\u671f\u65b0\u6a13\u843d\u6210\u7684\u500b\u6578\u8207\u5ea7\u843d\u5e03\u5340\u7684\u767e\u5206\u7387\u6240\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u767c\u73fe\u6b64\u5169\u500b\u56e0\u7d20\u8207\u6a13\u6307\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u7cfb\u6578\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u8a31\u8db3\u4ee5\u52a0\u5f37\u6211\u5011\u5229\u7528\u6a13\u6307\u6578\u5217\uff0c\u4f86\u89c0\u5bdf\u9999\u6e2f\u4f4f\u5b85\u6a13\u50f9\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5427\u3002<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6a13\u50f9\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u5206\u6790<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f9e\u8868\u4e00\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u6eab\u8fd1<\/span>15<\/span>\u5e74\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u7531<\/span>79<\/span>\u5e74\u7b2c<\/span>4<\/span>\u5b63\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u6a13\u6307\uff0c\u5728\u5e74\u534a\u5167\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86<\/span>50%<\/span>\uff08\u5176\u5be6\u6a13\u50f9\u5728<\/span>1975<\/span>\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u65b7\u5192\u5347\u4e86\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u9593\u6046\u751f\u6307\u6578\u4ea6\u5f9e<\/span>79<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u5e74\u5c3e\u7684<\/span>879<\/span>\u9ede\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3<\/span>1734<\/span>\u9ede\uff0c\u9304\u5f97\u8fd1\u4e00\u500d\u7684\u5347\u5e45\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c<\/span>1980<\/span>\u5e74\u662f\u8ca0\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u70ba\u4e86\u58d3\u6291\u6a13\u50f9\u548c\u904e\u71b1\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5e45\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff08\u7576\u6642\u672a\u6709\u806f\u7e6b\u532f\u7387<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u5728<\/span>81<\/span>\u5e74\u4e2d\u512a\u60e0\u5229\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u81f3\u8d85\u904e<\/span>20<\/span>\u5398\uff0c\u6e1b\u53bb\u901a\u8139\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u9054<\/span>l<\/span>\uff10\u5398\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u65bc\u662f\u9023\u540c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e00\u9f4a\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c<\/span>97<\/span>\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u554f\u984c\u66f4\u52a0\u523b\u5176\u8dcc\u5e45\uff0c\u5230<\/span>84<\/span>\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u6a13\u6307\u7531<\/span>150<\/span>\u9ede\u8dcc\u81f3<\/span>100<\/span>\u9ede\uff0c\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5404\u985e\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u6709\u9817\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u6a13\u5b87\u8dcc\u5e45\u6700\u5c0f\uff0c\u53ea\u8dcc\u4e86<\/span>30%<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u5927\u578b\u6a13\u5b87\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u8dcc\u4e86\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u6046\u751f\u6307\u6578\u5247\u8dcc\u4e86\u5927\u7d04<\/span>60%<\/span>\uff0c\u5728<\/span>83<\/span>\u5e74\u7b2c<\/span>3<\/span>\u5b63\u5230\u5e95\uff0c\u6bd4\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u4f4e\u9ede\uff0c\u65e9\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u534a\u5e74\u3002<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u7531<\/span>84<\/span>\u5e74\u7b2c<\/span>3<\/span>\u5b63\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u6a13\u50f9\u4fbf\u7a69\u5b9a\u5730\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u6a13\u50f9\u7531<\/span>100<\/span>\u9ede\u5347\u81f3<\/span>642<\/span>\u9ede\uff0c\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a<\/span>5<\/span>\u500d\u534a\uff0c\u8981\u7559\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6b64\u5347\u5e45\u662f\u6307\u6574\u9ad4\u6a13\u5b87\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5982\u55ae\u770b\u65b0\u6a13\u552e\u50f9\uff0c\u5176\u5347\u5e45\u80af\u5b9a\u6703\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u5404\u985e\u6a13\u5b87\u7684\u5347\u5e45\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u5927\u578b\u6a13\u5b87\u9304\u5f97<\/span>8.3<\/span>\u500d\u5347\u5e45\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u6a13\u5b87\u5247\u53ea\u6709<\/span>4.7<\/span>\u500d\u3002\u7d50\u5408<\/span>84<\/span>\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u8dcc\u6f6e\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u5927\u578b\u6a13\u50f9\u6ce2\u52d5\u9060\u8f03\u5c0f\u578b\u6a13\u50f9\u70ba\u5927\uff0c\u5927\u578b\u6a13\u50f9\uff0c\u5347\u5f97\u5feb\uff0c\u8dcc\u4ea6\u6025\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u66f4\u53d7\u7092\u5bb6\u6b61\u8fce\u3002<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u89c0\u5bdf\u8868\u4e00\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u73fe\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u53ea\u6709<\/span>1.58<\/span>\u5398\uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u5916\u570b\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5f88\u4f4e\u7684\u6578\u5b87\u3002\u7531<\/span>87<\/span>\u5e74\u7b2c<\/span>4<\/span>\u5b63\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u9577\u671f\u4f4e\u4f01\uff0c\u7531<\/span>87<\/span>\u5e74\u7b2c<\/span>4<\/span>\u5b63\u81f3<\/span>90<\/span>\u5e74\u7b2c<\/span>3<\/span>\u5b63\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u5728<\/span>l.8<\/span>\u5398\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8e0f\u5165<\/span>90<\/span>\u5e74\u7b2c<\/span>4<\/span>\u5b63\uff0c\u66f4\u9023\u7e8c\u6578\u5e74\u8dcc\u81f3\u8ca0\u6578\uff0c\u6700\u4f4e\u662f<\/span>91<\/span>\u5e74\u7b2c<\/span>3<\/span>\u5b63\u7684<\/span>-3.7%<\/span>\u3002\u7531\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u5c07<\/span>84<\/span>\u5e74\u4e2d\u81f3<\/span>94<\/span>\u5e74\u521d\u5283\u5206\u70ba<\/span>3<\/span>\u671f\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u671f\u70ba<\/span>84<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>3<\/span>\u5b63\u81f3<\/span>87<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>3<\/span>\u5b63\uff0c\u6b64\u6642\u5229\u7387\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u9054<\/span>7.4<\/span>\u5398\u3002<\/span>87<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>4<\/span>\u5b63\u81f3<\/span>90<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>3<\/span>\u5b63\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f4e\u4f01\uff0c\u4f46\u9084\u4e0d\u662f\u8ca0\u6578\uff0c<\/span>90<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>4<\/span>\u5b63\u81f3<\/span>94<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>1<\/span>\u5b63\u70ba\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u671f\uff0c\u4e09\u671f\u7684\u6a13\u50f9\u589e\u5e45\u4f9d\u6b21\u70ba<\/span>57%<\/span>\u3001<\/span>76%<\/span>\u53ca<\/span>133%<\/span>\uff08\u6574\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5b63\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\uff0c\u4f9d\u6b21\u70ba<\/span>3.5%<\/span>\u3001<\/span>4.8%<\/span>\u53ca<\/span>6.7%<\/span>\uff0c\u5347\u5f97\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u5feb\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u78ba\u5be6\u5982\u8a31\u591a\u4eba\u89c0\u5bdf\u6240\u5f97\uff0c\u662f\u6a13\u50f9\u8d77\u8dcc\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u518d\u89c0\u6046\u751f\u6307\u6578\u5728\u9019\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4ea6\u662f\u5347\u52e2\u51cc\u53b2\u3002\u4f46\u6709\u6578\u9ede\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u6046\u6307\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u6bd4\u6a13\u6307\u5287\u70c8\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u5176\u9593<\/span>87<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u707d\u3001<\/span>89<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u516d\u56db\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c<\/span>90<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u6771\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u90fd\u66fe\u5f15\u8d77\u80a1\u50f9\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\u6046\u6307\u7684\u5347\u5e45\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u4e09\u671f\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f9d\u6b21\u70ba<\/span>290%<\/span>\u3001<\/span>30%<\/span>\u53ca<\/span>200%<\/span>\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u6046\u6307\u8207\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u5982\u6a13\u50f9\u822c\u90a3\u6a23\u914d\u5408\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u6574\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5c0d\u80a1\u50f9\u662f\u6709\u5229\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u89c0\u5bdf\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e00\u4e9b\u8f03\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f5c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u6a13\u6307\u7684\u8907\u8ff4\u6b78\u6a21\u578b\uff1a<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6a13\u50f9\u6307\u6578<\/span>=71.389 + 0.959 * <\/span>\u6046\u751f\u6307\u6578<\/span> \u2013 7.063 * <\/span>\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u6b64\u6a21\u578b\u5927\u6982\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91cb<\/span>89%<\/span>\u6046\u6307\u7684\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u4ee5<\/span>1994<\/span>\u5e74\u9996\u5b63\u6046\u6307\u4f01\u65bc<\/span>642<\/span>\u9ede\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u7684\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u6703\u4ee4\u6a13\u6307\u6bcf\u5b63\u589e\u52a0<\/span>7<\/span>\u9ede\uff0c<\/span>l<\/span>\u5e74\u5927\u6982\u589e\u52a0<\/span>45%<\/span>\uff0c\u6046\u751f\u6bcf\u5b63<\/span>200<\/span>\u9ede\u7684\u5347\u5e45\uff0c\u6703\u4ee4\u6a13\u6307<\/span>l<\/span>\u5e74\u589e\u52a0<\/span>7.4%<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u6027<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u6a13\u50f9\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u4e0a\u5f88\u591a\u58d3\u529b\u5718\u9ad4\uff0c\u9f4a\u8072\u8981\u6c42\u653f\u5e9c\u5be6\u884c\u4e00\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u58d3\u6b62\u6216\u6e1b\u7de9\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u5347\u5e45\uff0c\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u9664\u4e86\u52aa\u529b\u5c0b\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\u571f\u5730\u4f9b\u61c9\u8207\u6a13\u5b87\u5efa\u8a2d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5916\uff0c\u66f4\u5be6\u884c\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u6253\u64ca\u7092\u6a13\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u6a13\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u7a76\u7adf\u6709\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u662f\u7531\u7092\u5bb6\u7684\u6d3b\u52d5\u6240\u5f15\u8d77\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u4e26\u672a\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5ba2\u89c0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u6240\u8b02\u7092\u8ce3\u6295\u6a5f\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u6307\u4e00\u4e9b\u77ed\u7dda\u7684\u6a13\u5b87\u8cb7\u8ce3\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u65b0\u6a13\u5927\u591a\u65bc\u6a13\u5b87\u843d\u6210\u524d\uff0c\u5df2\u53ef\u7528\u6a13\u82b1\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u8cb7\u8ce3\uff0c\u8207\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u76f8\u7576\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u6b64\u7a2e\u6295\u6a5f\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u9577\u7dda\u800c\u8a00\u5c0d\u6a13\u5b87\u7684\u4f9b\u6c42\u4e26\u7121\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6295\u6a5f\u8005\u6240\u8cb7\u5165\u7684\u6a13\u5b87\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u9577\u671f\u7a7a\u7f6e\uff0c\u800c\u59cb\u7d42\u8981\u653e\u56de\u51fa\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5047\u82e5\u5c07\u6a13\u5b87\u51fa\u79df\uff0c\u4ed6\u4fbf\u8b8a\u6210\u9577\u7dda\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6295\u6a5f\u6d3b\u52d5\u53ea\u7522\u751f\u77ed\u7dda\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u53ef\u6e2c\u6027\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u6a13\u5e02\u5982\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5982\u532f\u7387\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u671f\u8ca8\u7b49\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u512a\u826f\u5e02\u5834\u300d\uff08<\/span>Efficient Market)<\/span>\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u523b\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u90fd\u80fd\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u60c5\u5831\u3002\u4f46\u7531\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u60c5\u5831\u7121\u8e5f\u53ef\u5c0b\uff0c\u96a8\u6a5f\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u6545\u6b64\u50f9\u683c\u8d77\u8dcc\u7684\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u6027\u4ea6\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff0c\u7b26\u6070\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u4e2d\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u96a8\u6a5f\u6f2b\u6b65\u6a21\u578b\u300d\uff08<\/span>Random Walk Model<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u77ed\u7dda\u7092\u8ce3\u9577\u9060\u800c\u8a00\u4e0d\u80fd\u52dd\u904e\u9577\u7dda\u7684\u300c\u8cb7\u5165\u53ca\u6301\u6709\u7b56\u7565\u300d\uff08<\/span>Buy and Hold Strategy)<\/span>\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u6a13\u5e02\u662f\u300c\u512a\u826f\u5e02\u5834\u300d\uff0c\u77ed\u7dda\u6295\u6a5f\u8005\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u8cfa\u53d6\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u7dda\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u8caf\u7a4d\u5c45\u5947\u4e4b\u8aaa\u4fbf\u4e0d\u653b\u81ea\u7834\uff0c\u6545\u6b64\u554f\u984c\u7684\u7665\u7d50\uff0c\u7aef\u5728\u65bc\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u53ef\u6e2c\u6027\u4e0a\u3002<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u5047\u5982\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u6bcf\u5b63\u7684\u6a13\u50f9\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u8207\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b63\u7684\u6a13\u50f9\u8b8a\u52d5\u3001\u8a08\u7b97\u76f8\u95dc\u5229\u6f64\u7cfb\u6578\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u4e00\u5b63\u6642\u8ddd\u7684\u81ea\u884c\u76f8\u95dc\u7cfb\u6578\u300d\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u6b64\u7cfb\u6578\u63a5\u8fd1\u6216\u7b49\u65bc\u96f6\uff0c\u6a13\u50f9\u662f\u4e00\u300c\u96a8\u6a5f\u6f2b\u6b65\u6a21\u578b\u300d\u3002\u4f46\u8868\u4e8c\u7684\u81ea\u884c\u76f8\u95dc\u7cfb\u6578\uff0c\u6e05\u695a\u986f\u793a\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u5c0d\u4e00\u4e0a\u5b63\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u4f86\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u3002\u63db\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u725b\u5e02\u718a\u5e02\u5728\u6a13\u5e02\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u76f8\u7576\u6709\u7528\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4eca\u5b63\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u9a45\u52d5\u4e0b\u5b63\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u63da\u7684\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6b64\u52d5\u529b\u5728\u5c0f\u578b\u6a13\u5b87\u800c\u8a00\uff08<\/span>r=0.65)<\/span>\u6bd4\u5927\u578b\u6a13\u5b87\uff08<\/span>r=0.45)<\/span>\u70ba\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

\u5f9e\u8868\u4e8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4ea6\u53ef\u77e5\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u8207\u6046\u751f\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u770b\u4f5c\u6a13\u50f9\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u9818\u5148\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u6046\u6307\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5728\u5927\u578b\u6a13\u5b87\u65b9\u9762\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u800c\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9818\u5148\u4f5c\u7528\u5728\u5c0f\u578b\u6a13\u5b87\u65b9\u9762\u8f03\u5927\uff0c\u5229\u7528<\/span>1980<\/span>\u5e74\u81f3<\/span>1988<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\uff1a<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n

Zt = 0.008057 + 0.499344 Zt-1 + 0.071828A t-1 \u2013 0.001599Bt-1<\/font><\/span><\/p>\n

Z<\/span>\u548c<\/span>A<\/span>\u662f\u7528\u5c0d\u6578\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\u6a13\u6307\u548c\u6046\u6307\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c<\/span>B<\/span>\u70ba\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u3001\u4ee3\u8868\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5<\/span>94<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>1<\/span>\u5b63<\/span>640<\/span>\u9ede\u7684\u6a13\u6307\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u5e38\u6578\u8868\u793a\u6a13\u50f9\u6bcf\u5b63\u4ee5<\/span>2.6%<\/span>\u3001\u6216\u6bcf\u5e74\u4ee5<\/span>10.5%<\/span>\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u6a13\u50f9\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u9577\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u7531\u5404\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8ff4\u6b78\u7cfb\u6578\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u6a13\u50f9\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c\u6700\u80fd\u7528\u4f86\u9810\u6e2c\u4e00\u4e0b\u5b63\u7684\u6a13\u50f9\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u5404\u985e\u5225\u7684\u6a13\u5b87\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u4ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f86\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u500b\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7528<\/span>l989<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684<\/span>5<\/span>\u5e74\u6a13\u50f9\uff0c\u6e2c\u8a66\u4e0a\u5217\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u767c\u89ba\u5176\u9810\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u76f8\u7576\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u9060\u52dd\u96a8\u6a5f\u6f2b\u6b65\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5f9e\u9810\u6e2c\u503c\u6240\u72af\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u932f\u8aa4\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u6b64\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u70ba\u5f8c\u8005\u7684<\/span>35%<\/span>\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u6027\u76f8\u7576\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6a13\u50f9\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u56e0\u7d20\u5206\u6790\u53ca\u5176\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u6027\u3000\u95dc\u61c9\u5f37\uff0e\u7406\u5de5\u5b78\u9662\u61c9\u7528\u6578\u5b78\u7cfb\u8b1b\u5e2b \u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u8ca1\u7d93\u6708\u520a\u300b1995\u5e741\u6708\uff0e\u7e3d214\u671f \u672c […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[603689572],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-603689572"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9lhKB-hb","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1065"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1065\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4376,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1065\/revisions\/4376"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}