{"id":1060,"date":"2009-04-27T00:53:00","date_gmt":"2009-04-26T16:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/2009\/04\/27\/%e8%bd%89%e8%bc%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%9f%ba%e7%a4%8e%e8%88%87%e6%a8%93%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e8%a1%a8%e7%8f%be\/"},"modified":"2018-02-07T22:47:29","modified_gmt":"2018-02-07T14:47:29","slug":"%e8%bd%89%e8%bc%89%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%9f%ba%e7%a4%8e%e8%88%87%e6%a8%93%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e8%a1%a8%e7%8f%be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=1060","title":{"rendered":"[\u8f49\u8f09]\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u8207\u6a13\u80a1\u5e02\u8868\u73fe"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u8207\u6a13\u80a1\u5e02\u8868\u73fe\u3000\u9ec3\u6625\u83ef\uff0c\u6d78\u6703\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u7cfb<\/span><\/p>\n

\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u8ca1\u7d93\u6708\u520a\u300b<\/span>1999<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>7<\/span>\u6708\uff0e\u7e3d<\/span>268<\/span>\u671f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u8003\u616e\u672c\u5730\u6a13\u5e02\u8207\u80a1\u5e02\u66a2\u65fa\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u300c\u6ce1\u6cac\u7d93\u6fdf\u300d\u5728\u80cc\u5f8c\u8208\u98a8\u4f5c\u6d6a\uff0c\u7686\u56e0\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9810\u671f\u5927\u5e02\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5fc3\u88cf\u60f3\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6709\u9322\u8cfa\u300d\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u5c0d\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u50f9\u503c\u90fd\u6389\u4ee5\u8f15\u5fc3\u6216\u7f6e\u4e4b\u4e0d\u7406\u3002\u800c\u5927\u5e02\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\u4e0b\uff0c\u6240\u7d2f\u7a4d\u7684\u8cec\u9762\u5347\u5e45\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u6ce1\u6cac\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u5c0d\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u529b\uff0c\u53ca\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u6beb\u7121\u88e8\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u773e\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u6a13\u5e02\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8cf4\u4ee5\u6210\u9577\u7684\u652f\u67f1\uff0c\u5c0d\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u66f4\u662f\u8209\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u95dc\u65bc\u80a1\u5e02\u53ca\u6a13\u5e02\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u4e0d\u7d55\u65bc\u8033\uff1a\u5982\u56db\u6708\u6062\u5fa9\u8ce3\u5730\uff0c\u8ce3\u50f9\u8d85\u51fa\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5730\u7522\u5546\u5c0d\u6a13\u5e02\u524d\u666f\u5bc4\u4e88\u539a\u671b\u3002\u540c\u6642\u80a1\u5e02\u4e00\u7247\u66a2\u65fa\uff0c\u7531\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u5f8c\u7684\u4f4e\u4f4d<\/span>6,660<\/span>\u9ede\u5347\u81f3\u6700\u9ad8\u63a5\u8fd1<\/span>13,000<\/span>\u9ede\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u6a13\u5e02\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u9020\u597d\u7684\u6c23\u6c1b\u4e0b\uff0c\u672c\u571f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\uff08<\/span>Economic Fundamental)<\/span>\u4ecd\u672a\u898b\u8d77\u8272\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u5931\u696d\u7387\u9ad8\u9054<\/span>6.3%<\/span>\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6301\u7e8c\u8ca0\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\u75b2\u5f31\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u5207\u8207\u6a13\u80a1\u9818\u5148\u7d93\u6fdf\u660e\u986f\u662f\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u99b3\u3002\u7a76\u7adf\u80a1\u5e02\u9023\u756a\u9020\u597d\u7d14\u7cb9\u662f\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\u6240\u5e36\u52e4\uff0c\u6291\u6216\u662f\u672a\u4f86\u9999\u6e2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u662f\u6a13\u5e02\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u5e36\u52d5\u7d93\u6fdf\u6216\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u5e36\u52d5\u6a13\u5e02\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\uff1f\u7b46\u8005\u5c0d\u6b64\u8ab2\u984c\u9817\u9952\u8208\u8da3\uff0c\u53ef\u60dc\u6709\u95dc\u6a13\u5e02\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u6709\u5982\u9cf3\u6bdb\u9e9f\u89d2\u3002\u672c\u6587\u64ec\u4ee5\u5be6\u8b49\u7684\u8ad6\u64da\uff08<\/span>Empirical Evidence)<\/span>\uff0c\u63a2\u8a0e\u5b83\u5011\u76f8\u4e92\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u80a1\u5e02\u8868\u73fe\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u8ca1\u52d9\u5c08\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u82e5\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u6a13\u5e02\u61c9\u96a8\u4e4b\u63da\u5347\u3002<\/span>80<\/span>\u5e74\u81f3<\/span>89<\/span>\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u7684\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6046\u751f\u6307\u6578\u8207\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\u8da8\u52e2\u76f8\u4f3c\u3010\u5716\u4e00\u3011\u3002\u81ea\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u8fc4\u4eca\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u9a30\u98db\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u8207\u5be6\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf<\/span>(Real Economy)<\/span>\u540c\u6b65\u524d\u9032\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u5f8c\uff0c\u672c\u6e2f\u80a1\u5e02\u96a8\u4e9e\u6d32\u5404\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u5e02\u5834\u61c9\u8072\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8207\u5be6\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u662f\u300c\u5feb\u4eba\u4e00\u6b65\u300d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u904b\u7528\u76f8\u95dc\u7cfb\u6578<\/span>(Correlation Coefficient)<\/span>\u53ca\u56e0\u679c\u6e2c\u8a66<\/span>(Causality)<\/span>\u4f86\u8b49\u660e\u80a1\u5e02\u8207<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u5169\u8005\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u7cfb\u6578\u662f<\/span>0.93<\/span>\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5b83\u5011\u5b58\u5728\u5bc6\u5207\u7684\u6b63\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u80a1\u5e02\u66a2\u65fa\u6703\u5e36\u52d5\u672c\u571f\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u63da\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002\u518d\u770b\u8868\u4e00\u986f\u793a\u5169\u8005\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9664\u8868\u4e00\uff08<\/span>GDP\u2260HIS)<\/span>\u9805\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u5426\u5b9a\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u9918\u95dc\u4fc2\u5728\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5341\u5206\u986f\u8457\uff08<\/span>Significance)<\/span>\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6046\u751f\u6307\u6578\u8207<\/span>GDP<\/span>\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u8207\u73fe\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u60c5\u6cc1\u5341\u5206\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u8aaa\u672c\u5730\u5be6\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u300c\u4e00\u6f6d\u6b7b\u6c34\u300d\uff0c\u51fa\u5165\u53e3\u3001\u5de5\u696d\uff0c\u96f6\u552e\u7b49\u76f8\u95dc\u884c\u696d\u4e26\u672a\u6709\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\uff1b\u4e0d\u904e\u80a1\u5e02\u537b\u8868\u73fe\u5f97\u751f\u6c23\u52c3\u52c3\uff0c\u725b\u6c23\u6c96\u5929\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6e2f\u80a1\u4e0a\u63da\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u652f\u6301\u662f\u5341\u5206\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\uff0c\u53d7\u5916\u570d\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\u6c89\u91cd\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u80a1\u66a2\u65fa\uff0c\u9023\u5e36\u6e2f\u80a1\u9020\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5be6\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u6bd4\u9999\u6e2f\u5f37\u3002\u6e2f\u80a1\u53ea\u56e0\u5916\u8cc7\u5e36\u52d5\u800c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u53ea\u662f\u66c7\u82b1\u4e00\u73fe\uff0c\u96e3\u4ee5\u6301\u4e45\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u80a1\u5e02\u8207\u6a13\u5e02\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e9e\u6d32\u7d93\u6fdf\u958b\u59cb\u5fa9\u7526\uff0c\u4ee4\u5927\u91cf\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u5916\u8cc7\u5c0d\u4e9e\u6d32\u80a1\u5e02\u62b1\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u3002\u8fd1\u6578\u6708\uff0c\u4e9e\u6d32\u5404\u570b\u5305\u62ec\u6cf0\u570b\u3001\u5370\u5c3c\u3001\u99ac\u4f86\u897f\u4e9e\uff0c\u548c\u5357\u97d3\u7b49\u570b\u5bb6\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5df2\u6709\u8ff9\u8c61\u7531\u8c37\u5e95\u6b65\u51fa\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u65e5\u76ca\u660e\u986f\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u6301\u7e8c\u725b\u5e02\uff0c\u4ee4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u64d4\u5fc3\u7f8e\u80a1\u5df2\u7d93\u898b\u9802\uff0c\u6545\u8f49\u79fb\u6295\u8cc7\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e9e\u6d32\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u4fbf\u6210\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u5bf5\u5152\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u80a1\u5e02\u8207\u6a13\u5e02\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u5b78\u8853\u6587\u737b\u4e5f\u5c0d\u6b64\u8457\u58a8\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u6a13\u5e02\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8cf4\u4ee5\u6210\u9577\u7684\u652f\u67f1\uff0c\u6545\u6b64\uff0c\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u5b83\u5011\u4e4b\u9593\u95dc\u4fc2\u5c24\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u9999\u6e2f\u6a13\u5e02\u9700\u6c42\u8d70\u52e2\u5982\u65e5\u65b9\u4e2d\uff0c\u6eaf\u672c\u8ffd\u6e90\uff0c\u81ea\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u8fc4\u4eca\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u7522\u4fbf\u6210\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u4fdd\u503c\u7684\u7406\u60f3\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u500b\u4eba\u6216\u516c\u53f8\u4e5f\u9858\u610f\u300c\u64c1\u6709\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ed8\u51fa\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\u63db\u53d6\u300c\u5bf8\u91d1\u5c3a\u571f\u300d\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5927\u5bb6\u76f8\u4fe1\u6a13\u50f9\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6216\u98ca\u5347\uff0c\u6bcb\u5eb8\u7f6e\u7591\u9020\u5c31\u6a13\u5b87\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8208\u8d77\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u6a13\u5e02\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\uff08<\/span>Model<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u5fc5\u9808\u5177\u5099\u7a69\u56fa\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u57fa\u790e\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5b83\u5011\u53c8\u5fc5\u9808\u5148\u6709\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u6a13\u50f9\u8207\u80a1\u5e02\u5b58\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6a13\u5e02\u5728\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u5f8c\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u540c\u6b65\u524d\u9032\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u5011\u6301\u6709\u4ee5\u5730\u7522\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u571f\u5730\u548c\u6a13\u5b87\u5347\u503c\u5728\u5404\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50f9\u8868\u4e2d\u5747\u5448\u73fe\u8c50\u539a\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u82e5\u516c\u53f8\u5229\u6f64\u78ba\u5be6\u53cd\u6620\u5c07\u4f86\u7684\u76c8\u5229\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4fbf\u300c\u4e00\u7aa9\u8702\u300d\u8cfc\u8cb7\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5e36\u52d5\u6574\u500b\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u63da\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u904b\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff0c\u5f9e\u6578\u91cf\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5716\u4e00\u548c\u5716\u4e8c\u5206\u5225\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u80a1\u5e02\u3001<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u548c\u6a13\u5e02\u4e09\u8005\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u5716\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u4e09\u8005\u8da8\u52e2\u76f8\u8fd1\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u662f\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e09\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6307\u6a19\u540c\u6642\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5b83\u5011\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5bc6\u5207\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u5716\u4e09\u5c55\u793a\u6a13\u5e02\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u53ca\u5be6\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e09\u8005\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u898b\uff0c\u672c\u5730\u6a13\u5e02\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u4e09\u8005\u8da8\u5411\u4e00\u9ad4\u5316\u3010\u5716\u4e09\u3011\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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