{"id":1036,"date":"2009-06-06T21:55:00","date_gmt":"2009-06-06T13:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/2009\/06\/06\/%e7%ac%ac%e4%ba%8c%e7%89%88%e9%99%84%e9%8c%84%e2%94%80%e2%94%80%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e6%b5%b7%e5%98%af%e8%88%87%e6%a8%93%e5%b8%82%ef%bc%88%e4%b8%80%ef%bc%89\/"},"modified":"2018-02-07T21:49:23","modified_gmt":"2018-02-07T13:49:23","slug":"%e7%ac%ac%e4%ba%8c%e7%89%88%e9%99%84%e9%8c%84%e2%94%80%e2%94%80%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e6%b5%b7%e5%98%af%e8%88%87%e6%a8%93%e5%b8%82%ef%bc%88%e4%b8%80%ef%bc%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/?p=1036","title":{"rendered":"\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7248\u9644\u9304\u2500\u2500\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u8207\u6a13\u5e02\uff08\u4e00\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u58d3\u57ae\u99f1\u99dd\u7684\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u6839\u7a3b\u8349\u2500\u2500\u7f8e\u570b\u6a13\u5e02\u66b4\u8dcc\u4e26\u975e\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u6210\u56e0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u6a13\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u6709\u8a55\u8ad6\u8aaa\u4e0d\u5982\u7528\u516c\u5e11\u8cfc\u8cb7\u623f\u7522\u7136\u5f8c\u70b8\u6bc0\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u6a13\u50f9\uff0c\u5373\u5982\u50b5\u5238\u5927\u738b\u683c\u7f85\u65af\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u61c9\u8a72\u5236\u5b9a\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6e1b\u5c11\u696d\u4e3b\u65b7\u4f9b\u500b\u6848\u4ee5\u7a69\u5b9a\u6a13\u50f9\u3002\u4f3c\u4e4e\u53ea\u8981\u6a13\u50f9\u56de\u7a69\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u4fbf\u5f97\u5230\u89e3\u6c7a\uff0c\u7f8e\u597d\u6642\u5149\u53c8\u6703\u518d\u81e8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u6a13\u5e02\u6307\u6a19<\/span>Case-Shiller<\/span>\u623f\u7522\u6307\u6578\u7531<\/span>2006<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>6<\/span>\u6708\u6700\u9ad8\u5cf0\u6642\u7684<\/span>226.29<\/span>\uff0c\u5230<\/span>2008<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>8<\/span>\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5230<\/span>176.60<\/span>\uff0c\u8dcc\u5e45<\/span>21.96%<\/span>\u3002\u5957\u7528\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u4e2d\u539f\u6307\u6578\u7531<\/span>1997<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>7<\/span>\u6708<\/span>102.51<\/span>\u9ede\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5230<\/span>2003<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>8<\/span>\u6708\u7684<\/span>31.77<\/span>\uff0c\u8dcc\u5e45<\/span>69.0%<\/span>\u3002\u64da\u9999\u6e2f\u91d1\u878d\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u8ca0\u8cc7\u7522<\/span>2003<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>9<\/span>\u6708\u6700\u9ad8\u5cf0\u6642\u5168\u6e2f\u6709<\/span>106,000<\/span>\u5b97\uff0c\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u7576\u6642\u79c1\u6a13\u6236\u6578<\/span>1,258,000<\/span>\u500b\u55ae\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u6709<\/span>8.42%<\/span>\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u64da\u8aaa\u660e\u4e86\u5169\u9ede\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

1. <\/span>\u7f8e\u570b\u6a13\u5e02\u65e9\u5728<\/span>2006<\/span>\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5230<\/span>2007<\/span>\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u624d\u51fa\u4e8b\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u6a13\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

2. <\/span>\u9999\u6e2f\u6a13\u50f9\u7531\u9ad8\u5cf0\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e03\u6210\u53ea\u88fd\u9020\u4e86<\/span>8.42%<\/span>\u8ca0\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6a13\u5e02\u8dcc\u5e45\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u9999\u6e2f\uff0c\u8ca0\u8cc7\u7522\u4ea6\u4e0d\u61c9\u662f\u6b21\u6309\u7206\u7172\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7406\u7531\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span> <\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span> <\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u6a13\u5e02\u4e0a\u4e00\u9ad8\u5cf0\u5728<\/span>1989<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>10<\/span>\u6708<\/span>Cash-Shiller<\/span>\u623f\u7522\u6307\u6578<\/span>82.44<\/span>\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u6a13\u5e02\u5728<\/span>75.63-82.4<\/span>\u9593\u5f98\u5f8a\u4e86\u516b\u5e74\u591a\uff0c\u5230<\/span>1998<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>1<\/span>\u6708\u624d\u5347\u56de<\/span>82.70<\/span>\u5275\u51fa\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u4e00\u53e3\u6c23\u4e0a\u5347\u5230<\/span>2006<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>6<\/span>\u6708\u7684<\/span>226.29<\/span>\uff0c\u5982\u4ee5<\/span>1994<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>2<\/span>\u6708\u6700\u4f4e\u4f4d<\/span>76.63<\/span>\u8a08\uff0c\u5171\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86<\/span>195.3%<\/span>\uff01\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u5c07\u662f\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u6b78\u548e\u65bc\u524d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u5728<\/span>1998<\/span>\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u56e0\u62ef\u6551\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u57fa\u91d1<\/span>Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)<\/span>\u800c\u653e\u5bec\u9280\u6839\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a<\/span>2000<\/span>\u5e74\u79d1\u7db2\u71b1\u6f6e\u7206\u7834\u800c\u5927\u5e45\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u4ee4\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u6ce1\u6cab\u51fa\u73fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u6211\u5011\u53c8\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\u770b\u5230\u6a13\u80a1\u4e0d\u540c\u6b65\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff1a\u7531<\/span>1998<\/span>\u5e74\u81f3<\/span>2006<\/span>\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u6a13\u5e02\u6c92\u6709\u986f\u8457\u8abf\u6574\u904e\uff0c\u800c\u80a1\u5e02\u671f\u9593\u6709\u5347\u6709\u8dcc\uff0c\u5230\u6a13\u5e02\u5728<\/span>2006<\/span>\u5e74\u898b\u9802\u5f8c\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u4ecd\u7136\u5411\u4e0a\u8dd1\u3002\u4e8b\u5f8c\u56de\u770b\uff1a\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u80a1\u5e02\u6216\u7d93\u6fdf\u51fa\u73fe\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c31\u51fa\u624b\u6551\u5e02\uff0c\u7576\u4e2d\u5c24\u4ee5\u6e1b\u606f\u70ba\u5e38\u7528\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u6a13\u5e02\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6c92\u6709\u554f\u984c\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u706b\u4e0a\u52a0\u6cb9\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u800c\u540c\u4e00\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u4ee5\u6309\u63ed\u5305\u88dd\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u5927\u884c\u5176\u9053\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u5927\u6279\u5982<\/span>SIV<\/span>\u3001<\/span>CDS<\/span>\u4e4b\u985e\u7684\u300c\u5b57\u6bcd\u6e6f\u300d\uff0c\u7c21\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u96e3\u4ee5\u500b\u5225\u8a55\u4f30\u7684\u6b21\u6309\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u662f\u7528\u4ee5\u5206\u6563\u6309\u63ed\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7576\u6a13\u50f9\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u7576\u4e2d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u88ab\u96b1\u85cf\u8d77\u4f86\uff1b\u6a13\u5e02\u5728<\/span>2006<\/span>\u5e74\u898b\u9802\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4eba\u58eb\u4ecd\u5984\u5716\u50e5\u5016\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6b21\u6309\u884d\u751f\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u7576\u8dcc\u5e02\u6301\u7e8c\u4e26\u6f2b\u5ef6\u5230\u80a1\u5e02\u6642\uff0c\u65b7\u4f9b\u60c5\u6cc1\u958b\u59cb\u6d6e\u73fe\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6a13\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8b8a\u6210\u300c\u58d3\u57ae\u99f1\u99dd\u7684\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u6839\u7a3b\u8349\u300d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u771f\u6b63\u58d3\u57ae\u99f1\u99dd\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u53ca\u7fa4\u773e\u9577\u671f\u5165\u4e0d\u6577\u51fa\uff0c\u96d9\u8d64\u554f\u984c\u61f8\u800c\u672a\u6c7a\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u900f\u904e\u5404\u7a2e\u91d1\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u7dad\u6301\u8868\u9762\u98a8\u5149\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u5236\u5ea6\u904e\u65bc\u5bec\u9b06\uff0c\u5c0d\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\uff08\u6a13\u623f\u6216\u6b21\u6309\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u7684\u8a55\u6838\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u653e\u6b3e\u6642\u5c0d\u501f\u8cb8\u8005\u8a55\u4f30\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u7576\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u8dcc\uff0c\u5be6\u529b\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u8005\u5b88\u7121\u53ef\u5b88\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u4fbf\u8981\u627f\u64d4\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u5230\u5f8c\u671f\u751a\u81f3\u767c\u5c55\u5230\u6309\u63ed\u53ef\u4ee5\u300c\u9084\u606f\u4e0d\u9084\u672c\u300d\uff0c\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u6536\u56de\u672c\u91d1\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u5230\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u6a13\u5e02\u518d\u8d77\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u5df2\u770b\u6e05\u6b21\u6309\u53ca\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u771f\u9762\u76ee\u2500\u2500\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e0d\u8ca0\u8cac\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5f9e\u696d\u54e1\u88fd\u9020\u51fa\u4f86\u5716\u5229\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7576\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u91d1\u878d\u5236\u5ea6\u5931\u53bb\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u5b58\u6236\u6703\u64e0\u63d0\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u6703\u5012\u9589\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u6015\u5c0d\u624b\u5012\u9589\u4e0d\u6562\u653e\u6b3e\u4ee4\u62c6\u606f\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u9593\u63a5\u4ee4\u9280\u884c\u7684\u6309\u63ed\u8cb8\u6b3e\u7121\u5229\u53ef\u5716\uff0c\u800c\u4f7f\u9280\u884c\u5343\u65b9\u767e\u8a08\u6536\u7dca\u8cb8\u6b3e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee4\u9999\u6e2f\u51fa\u73fe\u9280\u884c\u5411\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u8981\u6c42\u9084\u6b3e<\/span>(call loan)<\/span>\u3001\u5ef6\u9577\u4fe1\u7528\u54ad\u5546\u6236\u6578\u671f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u70ba\u6e1b\u4f4e\u6309\u63ed\u8cb8\u6b3e\u800c\u5404\u51fa\u5947\u5a92\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u58d3\u57ae\u99f1\u99dd\u7684\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u6839\u7a3b\u8349\u2500\u2500\u7f8e\u570b\u6a13\u5e02\u66b4\u8dcc\u4e26\u975e\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u6210\u56e0 \u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u6a13\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u6709\u8a55\u8ad6 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[596004827],"tags":[603689666,603689665,603689632],"class_list":["post-1036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media","tag-603689666","tag-603689665","tag-603689632"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9lhKB-gI","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1036","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1036"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1036\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9332,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1036\/revisions\/9332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1036"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1036"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tokuhon.blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1036"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}